863
FXUS63 KICT 050522
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1222 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms possible across far southeast KS late this
  afternoon and evening.

- Heat indices near 105 will continue this afternoon across far
  southeast KS.

- Seasonable temperatures expected over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A an outflow boundary/effective front continues to be draped
across portions of far southeast Kansas this afternoon. This
front has been quite slow moving most of the day thus far.

Enough heating/destabilization is expected along and ahead of the
front this afternoon to continue to warrant the risk of a few severe
storms.  Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and heavy rain look to be the
primary concern with modest ML & DCAPE combo along with
anomalously high PW and steep lapse rates. Thinking initiation
time would be in the 21-01Z timeframe. Activity is expected to
drift southeast in northern Oklahoma by tonight with much
quieter conditions expected area wide overnight. For those with
outdoor Independence Day activities planned for tonight, expect
10pm temperatures to be in the 70s with a light north wind.

A quiet day is expected for much of the day tomorrow with
temperatures expected to remain slightly below seasonable normal
(92) in the mid and upper 80s. Ridging is expected to remain over
the western CONUS over the next several days while slowly
amplifying. Meanwhile, broad troughing will remain draped
across mid america with several shortwave perturbations progged
to pass through the Plains over the next week. These will
bring intermittent chances for showers and storms along with
seasonable temperatures to the area over the next week. The
next best chance (30%) of showers and storms across the area
will return on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions expected for all TAF sites across
central/southern Kansas for the next 24hrs with light north
winds and clear skies.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...CDJ