Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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880 FXUS63 KICT 010524 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers/thunderstorms tonight into early Monday, mainly over the northern half of Kansas. - Triple digit heat indices return for Monday and Tuesday. - Active weather pattern continues from late Tuesday through early Friday, including the chance for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 TONIGHT-MONDAY MORNING...Increasing warm advection and moisture transport in the 850-650 mb layer in response to subtle mid-level energy approaching across the Central High Plains should allow for increasing thunderstorm chances after about midnight. Most guidance supports the highest chances over generally the northern half of Kansas, although thinking lift is sufficient for at least isolated activity as far south as southern KS or northern OK. Instability/shear combination isn`t overly impressive, so thinking hail threat should remain mostly below severe levels. However, continued above average precipitable waters near 2 inches will support locally intense rainfall rates. Activity should exit east into northeast Kansas Monday morning. MONDAY AFTERNOON--THURSDAY NIGHT...The heat and humidity build back north across the region for Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon through early evening heat indices climbing into the 100-108 degree range. Will hoist a heat advisory for Monday, and suspect we`ll eventually need one for Tuesday as well. Additionally, model consensus progresses a front south into the region by late Tuesday, and stalls it across the region through late week. This, along with a few seasonably strong/deep upper troughs, will support periodic thunderstorm chances across the region late Tuesday through Thursday night or early Friday. A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer shear should support strong to severe storm chances, along with locally heavy rainfall. FRIDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports somewhat cooler and mostly dry weather by next Friday-Saturday, with lower dewpoints and seasonably cool to below average temperatures, as upper troughing deepens over the central and eastern CONUS. By Saturday night--Sunday, model consensus supports a return to thunderstorm chances, as shortwave energy traverses the central and northern CONUS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Widely scattered showers have developed near SLN and should persist for the next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail in these showers. Additional showers and storms are possible after 09-10Z, mainly at RSL and SLN. In addition, MVFR CIGS should arrive and continue through mid-morning. Stratus will scatter by mid-morning as southeasterly winds increase to 15-25 kt with even stronger wind speeds by mid-afternoon. The strongest winds will remain across central KS at GBD and RSL. Marginal LLWS conditions are possible at HUT, SLN, RSL, and GBD towards the end of the period but confidence is too low for mention at this point. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...BRB