316
FXUS63 KICT 170816
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/storms over far southern Kansas through early to mid
  this morning.

- A prolonged period of below average temperatures through at
  least mid next week, along with periodic shower/thunderstorm
  chances from Friday night through the weekend or early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

PRECIPITATION...A convectively-generated mid-level disturbance
approaching from the west, in concert with strong convergence
along/north of a stationary frontal zone will continue to support
scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms over far southern Kansas
the rest of the night, gradually diminishing by early to mid this
morning. The combination of modest to strong instability with weak
deep layer shear will support pulse and weakly organized multicell
thunderstorms capable of isolated occurrences of 50-60 mph winds and
dime size hail. Additionally, high precipitable waters combined with
slow and training storm motions will support pockets of very heavy
rainfall and localized flooding of typical flood-prone areas.

Otherwise, cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm this
afternoon-evening across central, south-central, and southeast
Kansas, as an elongated upper trough approaches from the northwest.
Thinking any activity will be quite isolated given relatively weak
forcing. Limited instability/shear should preclude severe weather.

For late tonight into Thursday morning, a few showers/thunderstorms
appear possible west of I-135, within a zone of increasing 700-600mb
warm advection. Additional isolated showers/storms are possible
Thursday night into early Friday, as shortwave energy approaches
from the northwest. Activity will likely not be widespread,
and severe weather is not expected in both cases.

A prolonged period of off-and-on showers/thunderstorms is expected
from Friday night through early to mid next week, as an unseasonably
deep upper trough digs south and stalls out over the central CONUS.
At this point, confidence in widespread/numerous activity is highest
Friday night through Saturday night or Sunday. Limited instability
with weak to modest deep layer shear may support a few strong to
marginally severe storms during this time along with locally heavy
rain, especially Friday night-Saturday, but all-in-all widespread
severe weather is not expected.

TEMPERATURES...Unseasonably deep and persistent upper troughing over
portions of the central and eastern CONUS, along with periodic bouts
of precipitation and clouds, will support below average temperatures
through at least mid next week. Thinking temperatures will be
coolest Saturday through Monday, when the potential for
clouds/precipitation will be highest. Forecast high temperatures
mostly in the 80s are likely, although 70s are probable for at least
portions of the forecast area Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period with the
exception of ICT and KCNU. These terminals are likely to see
some thunderstorm activity during the early morning hours. This
activity may produce winds into the 45Kts range with some heavy
rain. This activity is expected to diminish by 12Z this morning
and give way to VFR conditions. By 04Z tomorrow night, there
will be an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. KRSL
and KGBD are the first terminals expected to see this activity.
At this time, the stronger thunderstorm activity is not
expected until after this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM