065
FXUS63 KICT 111743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong/severe storms are possible over southeast Kansas this
afternoon thru the late evening hours

- Heat will begin to build over the region for Friday into early
  next week with above 100 degree indices likely for the weekend
  through Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Elevated showers/thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of a upper
level wave inducing warm air advection across and mid level
baroclinic zone early this morning. This slow moving area of lift
could cause the activity to linger across the region for this
morning and possibly into the afternoon. Meanwhile current water
vapor satellite imagery shows another upper level wave over southern
Minnesota moving southward down the backside of main upper trough
axis. As this system moves southward another round of diurnally
driven showers and storms should develop ahead of this system with
cooler mid level temperatures. We could see additional storms bubble
up over southeast Kansas for late this afternoon thru the late
evening hours where higher precipitable water axis will reside. The
shear/instability combination is supportive of a few strong to
severe storms to develop for any updraft that is maintained.

The upper level high pressure center will slowly migrate eastward
from the Rockies towards the central plains for Friday into early
next week. This will allow the heat dome to build across Kansas with
hot above normal temperatures returning to the region. In addition,
the heat and humidity will cause heat indices to surpass 100 for
most locations for Sunday-Tuesday. Heading into Wednesday some of
the long range models show a frontal boundary possibly venturing
southward into Kansas which could bring some relief from the heat
along with chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will waver across
central Kansas with more of an easterly component to the wind
along the I-70 corridor. Widely scattered late day/early night
convection is expected across southeast Kansas, which may impact
the KCNU terminal, so have inserted VCTS when this is somewhat
more probable.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...KED