618
FXUS63 KICT 111902
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
202 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong/severe storms are possible over southeast Kansas
  late afternoon thru tonight.

- Heat will begin to build over the region tomorrow into early
  next week with the heat indices of 100 to 107 degrees area
  wide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Pronounced ridging is set up across the western CONUS while a
trough axis is currently located from the Great Lakes region to
the Mid Mississippi Valley. A secondary wave will be moving
through the base of the main trough this evening and tonight
which will help support isolated to scattered storm activity.

This evening, storms will be possible across portions of southeast
KS where increased PWs in an area of weak convergence will combine
with relatively weak CIN and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and marginal shear
around 30kts. Storms may linger and further develop in the overnight
hours as warm moist advection takes over as a subtle southwesterly
LLJ develops overnight. Shear increases slightly overnight (1-6km 30-
40kts) while a gradient of 850-300mb MUCAPE falls to 800-1400 J/kg.
The stronger storm activity this evening through tonight will be
capable of hail up to quarter sized and 55 to 65 mph wind gusts,
along with pockets of heavy rain.

Still thinking tomorrow afternoon will remain dry across much if not
all of the CWA, though can`t completely rule out a storm across far
southern KS near the OK border as a very subtle wave moves
through the otherwise building ridge over the area. A small
area of silent pops were added for now. Otherwise, the next
several days are going to turn hot as the western ridge expands
east and dominates the pattern thru the middle of next week.
Highs will approach the mid/upper 90s (SE KS) to the low 100s
tomorrow increasing to the upper 90s (SE KS) to the low and mid
100s by Sunday. Excessive heat will continue through Tuesday
with some relief coming in by next Wednesday. The greatest heat
indices of 100 to 106-107 are expected in the afternoon Sunday
through Tuesday. Overnight temperatures Sunday through Tuesday
will remain in the upper 70s, offering little relief from the
heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will waver across
central Kansas with more of an easterly component to the wind
along the I-70 corridor. Widely scattered late day/early night
convection is expected across southeast Kansas, which may impact
the KCNU terminal, so have inserted VCTS when this is somewhat
more probable.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...KED