339
FXUS63 KICT 121930
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Limited/isolated storm chances through tonight...

- Several days of scorching Summer heat through at least Monday!

- Heat relief and chances for needed rainfall by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A limited risk for diurnally driven convection will linger
across the area into the early evening with somewhat better
chances within the higher precipitable water axis where
moderate mlcape values will reside east of I-135. However,
chances are becoming more conditional due to slightly warmer
mid-level temperatures. Expected convection across the northern
Plains this evening could also move southward into portions of
northern and eastern Kansas overnight, so will retain slight
PoPs over parts of central and southeast Kansas. Otherwise,
temperatures will continue to warm throughout the lower and
mid-troposphere as the upper ridge builds more in earnest over
the area during the weekend. This should effectively inhibit
convective chances with the more intense Summer heat becoming
the main weather story. South to southwest winds should also
become diurnally gusty especially along/west of the Kansas
turnpike. Combo of air temperatures and heat indices will range
from 102 to 108 degrees the next several days (through at least
Monday) so have issued a Heat Advisory for the entire forecast
area.

As we go through early next week a deeper upper trof/low will lobe
southeastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes which looks to
push a stronger cold front southward across the Midwest/central
Plains. Of course timing nuances could affect when the cooler/less
hot air will arrive as well as the better precipitation
chances, though model consensus for now suggests this will occur
sometime Tuesday into Wednesday.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Limited/isolated convective chances this evening/tonight,
otherwise VFR conditions with increasing southerly winds by
midday on Saturday.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...KED