743
FXUS63 KICT 140816
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A smattering of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms through
  about mid this morning.

- Hot above average temperatures through Monday.

- A few storms possible Monday evening-night over central and
  north-central Kansas.

- A return to cooler weather and off-and-on thunderstorm chances
  by late Tuesday, persisting through at least next weekend or
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Similar to the past few nights, a smattering of hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms is expected through about mid-morning across
portions of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, due to
persistent weak to modest mid-level warm advection underneath a
subtle mid-upper disturbance approaching from the north. Available
instability and effective shear is limited given how high based this
activity is (around 12,000 ft AGL), so severe weather is not
expected, although cannot rule out small hail, gusty winds, and
brief heavy rain with the strongest cells.

Otherwise, hot temperatures and breezy/gusty south winds will
continue today and Monday. Will continue the heat advisory through
Monday evening, as afternoon through early evening heat indices will
exceed 100-105 degrees both days.

A cold front approaching from the north should be a focus for
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Monday evening-night,
mainly over the northern half of Kansas. The main concern with this
activity will be locally strong to severe wind gusts given high
cloud bases.

Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a pattern change to cooler
and off-an-on wet weather is anticipated by late Tuesday, and
persisting through at least next weekend or early next week. The
culprits will be longwave upper troughing becoming established
across the central and eastern CONUS, driving a cold front south
into Mid-America. The latest guidance suggests these off-and-on
thunderstorm chances will be greatest late Tuesday through Wednesday
evening, and then again Saturday through early next week. Periodic
bouts of strong to severe storms are possible, given a favorable
combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Subtle mid-upper energy approaching from the north in concert
with persistent modest 800-600mb warm advection should support a
gradual uptick in widely scattered showers/thunderstorms by
around 10z, persisting through mid-late this morning. Brief
heavy rain and occasional lightning strikes may accompany the
strongest activity. For now, only included VCSH at HUT-ICT-CNU,
but may eventually need TS. Otherwise, breezy/gusty south winds
will prevail regionwide today.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK