445
FXUS63 KICT 150813
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 248 AM
CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today but record temperatures are unlikely

- Another hot day Tuesday in the south but cooling off in the north
with an approaching front

- Unseasonably cool for the end of the week and into the weekend &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Ridging continues to build into the region today along with some
weak moisture advection.  Boundary layer temperatures are expected
to be in the 37C-40C range today over much of Central and Southern
Kansas.  Combine this with 850mb temps in the 29C-32C range,
2024expect temperatures to reach the 105 mark rather easily. Records
for today still look out of reach as they are all over 110 and from
the dust bowl era or 1980.  By late this afternoon and into the
evening, a slow moving cold front will be encroaching on the region.
 There will be plenty of moisture in the region to provide the fuel
along with the inherent forcing for the front to kick of the
thunderstorm activity tonight.  That said, shear values and upper
level support is rather weak. Combine this with warm 700mb temps
(15C-17C), any storms that do develop and move into the region will
likely be on the weaker side and are unlikely to produce severe
weather. That said, and isolated severe storms with quarter sized
hail and 60 mph winds can`t be ruled out.  Further north in
Northwest Kansas, this will be a different story as the mid and
upper level dynamics appear to be more conducive to stronger storms.
 For the CWA, this activity looks to be rather weak.

Tuesday looks to be rather tricky.  The position and the speed of
the incoming front will play a large role in temperatures.  Some of
the ensembles are rather quick with the frontal system and bring in
higher chances for showers and thunderstorms across the CWA fairly
early.  This solution would likely keep the hot temperatures
restricted to the far southeastern areas of the CWA.  Other
ensembles are slower indicating a larger area of hot temperatures
with a later arrival of the front. Either solution presents a
possible problem with cloud cover which could also hamper
temperatures.  Given the uncertainties, left the heat head line as
is but made some minor adjustments to temperatures.  Primarily
pushing the hotter temperatures a little further south to compensate
the higher potential for cloud cover hanging around longer than
previously expected in the central areas of the CWA.  Showers and
thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night.  Again, like Monday night,
shear values and mid level temperatures will inhibit strong to
severe thunderstorms but the potential for heavy rain is higher.
Also, given the slow moving nature these storms are likely to
present, there is a chance for some localized flooding.

Wednesday and into the weekend, northerly flow and CAA will take
control.  Rain chances will remain fairly high but severe weather
looks unlikely at this time.  Temperatures are expected to be a good
10 degrees below normal for this time of year providing a nice
reprieve from the oppressive temperatures of today.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Winds will
remain light as well. The only concern will be the development
of some low level turbulence at the KRSL, KGBD and KSLN
terminals around 00Z to 04Z. This will persist for a few hours
tomorrow night but should not be wide spread. These conditions
may persist through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Forecast high and record highs for today:

           Today`s High     Record High

Wichita        106           110 (1936)
Salina         108           112 (1934)
Chanute        102           115 (1936)
Russell        106           109 (1980)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM
CLIMATE...ELM