121
FXUS63 KICT 151934
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
234 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Initial (modest) heat relief and widely scattered shower/storm
  chances tonight thru Tuesday.

- Better chances for showers/storms Tuesday night with stronger
  secondary cold front with more significant cooling on
  Wednesday.

- Cooler/drier air with temperatures below climo to finish the
  work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Heat relief is on the way, though it will come in somewhat
limited fashion on Tuesday behind a shallow/weak surface cold
front. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers/storms
are possible along or just behind the boundary this evening,
more probable just north and west of the forecast area. However,
some short term models suggest a loosely organized cluster may
move or develop east-southeastward into central and portions of
southern Kansas toward dawn. So will grade modest chance PoPs
across central Kansas to slight PoPs closer to the Oklahoma
border. Any convective activity could linger thru the morning on
Tuesday with the effective initial front expected to push along
or just south of the Oklahoma border by the afternoon. Modest
cooling (less hot) conditions are expected behind this shallow
front. That said, heat indices may still hover around or just
near 105 for the Oklahoma border counties of south
central/southeast Kansas, so the Heat Advisory may need to be
extended, though confidence was not high enough to do so with
this forecast cycle. As a stronger upper trof pivots
southeastward from the Upper Midwest into the western Great
Lakes Tuesday night, the stronger secondary cold front will move
southward across Kansas. Convective chances look to increase
across the entire area by Tuesday night with a potential MCS
evolving in the upslope flow regime across the central high
Plains which should move southeastward along the moisture and
instability axis along the southward moving frontal zone. The
cooler and drier air will overspread area later Wednesday into
Thursday as the large low level anticyclone and Canadian origin
airmass settles southward across the Midwest. So the main theme
for the latter half of the week will continue to be the more
tolerable below climo temperatures for Kansas. The unseasonably
mild regime should continue thru the weekend with the core of
the more intense heat residing across the western conus as the
upper ridge remains centered from Arizona and Great Basin into
the Canadian Rockies. Kansas will remain in northerly flow
aloft with potential weak disturbances dropping south providing
limited precip chances.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. A weak cold front will move southward across central
Kansas this evening with isolated convection possible along the
front. Strong wind gusts will be possible. Overnight, widely
scattered showers and storms may develop along and just behind
the front as it moves into south central and southeast Kansas
toward dawn. Due to uncertainty in coverage in time and space,
have only indicated chances with VCSH for now.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...KED