506
FXUS64 KHUN 042332
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Any showers or storms that developed this afternoon will quickly
come to an end with the loss of daytime heating tonight. This
should make for ideal firework viewing conditions. Another muggy
night is in store as overnight temperatures will only drop down
into the mid to upper 70s. As the upper level ridge that has been
centered over the TN Valley for the last few days begins to shift
east, a cold front slowly drops down from the northwest. While the
front is not expected to arrive until Friday, some hires guidance
suggests some showers and storms may develop out ahead of it
bringing a low chance for precip into NW AL by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

As the cold front pushes through the area on Friday, expect
coverage in showers and storms to increase steadily through the
late morning into the afternoon. High chances (70-90%) of
thunderstorms are forecast during the peak heating hours tomorrow
afternoon. The good news is that this potentially could bring
some much needed rain to the area. Severe storms are not expected
given poor lapse rates and meager amounts of shear.

The Heat Advisory remains in effect on Friday. Despite rain
chances, afternoon temperatures are forecast to rise into the low
90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This brings peak heat
index values between 100F and 109F. There is some uncertainty if
we will meet criteria in portions of the area due to increased
cloud cover, but at this time no changes to the headline will be
made.

Post cold front airmass is both slightly cooler and drier. While
afternoon temperatures still reach the lower 90s on Saturday, the
dewpoints will be much more bearable, mixing out into the mid 60s
in the afternoon. Some models suggest that the front will not
entirely clear the forecast area and stall in central AL. As a
result, low chances for showers and storms were maintained in our
southeastern zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

On Sunday, upper level ridging looks to be stretched over the
Atlantic and down through the Deep South. A large upper trough will
dominate the central CONUS but also extend up into the Ohio Valley
and Canada. This leaves the local area in southwesterly flow aloft,
and this will continue through at least Monday night until the trough
finally starts to swing to the east/northeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The surface front that is slated to move south of the area
on Saturday is expected to meander over this region through early
next week. Another cold front is then anticipated to progress over
the Ohio Valley by midweek.

For sensible weather, after a dry day on Sunday, daily chances
(generally low to medium, 30-60%) of showers and storms are forecast
through midweek. This is especially true during peak heating
(afternoon hours). Sufficient instability for thunderstorm
development is anticipated, along with shear around 20 knots. While
severe weather is not expected at this time, heavy downpours,
lightning, and some gusty winds will all be possible in any
thunderstorms that do develop. Additionally, the chances of
showers/storms and amount of cloud cover will cause temperatures to
be slightly cooler than we`ve seen this week, with values in the
lower to mid 90s Sunday and Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday
and Wednesday. Expecting lows to mainly be in the upper 60s lower
70s each night. Even though the forecast calls for a bit cooler
conditions, it will still be warm (especially early next week).
Please continue to be cautious if you have outdoor plans. Take breaks
in the shade and stay hydrated!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue tonight at both KMSL and
KHSV. A low chance of showers moves in during the early morning
hours which may cause MVFR conditions across the TN Valley due to
lowered visibilities during times of rainfall. Chances for
rainfall increase during the late morning before thunderstorms are
introduced during the afternoon hours. During thunderstorms, MVFR
conditions are likely.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC