648
FXUS64 KHUN 050616
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
116 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 906 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Low chances of showers (20% or less) remain possible throughout
the TN Valley this evening, however, confidence is low in these
due to the loss of daytime heating. In areas that clear overnight,
a low chance of patchy fog is possible- especially in areas that
received rainfall and along large bodies of water. Increased
chances (30-60%) of showers arrive by daybreak ahead of a cold
front moving into the area from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

As the cold front pushes through the area on Friday, expect
coverage in showers and storms to increase steadily through the
late morning into the afternoon. High chances (70-90%) of
thunderstorms are forecast during the peak heating hours tomorrow
afternoon. The good news is that this potentially could bring
some much needed rain to the area. Severe storms are not expected
given poor lapse rates and meager amounts of shear.

The Heat Advisory remains in effect on Friday. Despite rain
chances, afternoon temperatures are forecast to rise into the low
90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This brings peak heat
index values between 100F and 109F. There is some uncertainty if
we will meet criteria in portions of the area due to increased
cloud cover, but at this time no changes to the headline will be
made.

Post cold front airmass is both slightly cooler and drier. While
afternoon temperatures still reach the lower 90s on Saturday, the
dewpoints will be much more bearable, mixing out into the mid 60s
in the afternoon. Some models suggest that the front will not
entirely clear the forecast area and stall in central AL. As a
result, low chances for showers and storms were maintained in our
southeastern zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

On Sunday, upper level ridging looks to be stretched over the
Atlantic and down through the Deep South. A large upper trough will
dominate the central CONUS but also extend up into the Ohio Valley
and Canada. This leaves the local area in southwesterly flow aloft,
and this will continue through at least Monday night until the trough
finally starts to swing to the east/northeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The surface front that is slated to move south of the area
on Saturday is expected to meander over this region through early
next week. Another cold front is then anticipated to progress over
the Ohio Valley by midweek.

For sensible weather, after a dry day on Sunday, daily chances
(generally low to medium, 30-60%) of showers and storms are forecast
through midweek. This is especially true during peak heating
(afternoon hours). Sufficient instability for thunderstorm
development is anticipated, along with shear around 20 knots. While
severe weather is not expected at this time, heavy downpours,
lightning, and some gusty winds will all be possible in any
thunderstorms that do develop. Additionally, the chances of
showers/storms and amount of cloud cover will cause temperatures to
be slightly cooler than we`ve seen this week, with values in the
lower to mid 90s Sunday and Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday
and Wednesday. Expecting lows to mainly be in the upper 60s lower
70s each night. Even though the forecast calls for a bit cooler
conditions, it will still be warm (especially early next week).
Please continue to be cautious if you have outdoor plans. Take breaks
in the shade and stay hydrated!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the early overnight hours
before showers and thunderstorms arrive over the area around
sunrise. Expect showers and thunderstorms to persist on and off
through much of the TAF period, with reductions to MVFR conditions
likely although confidence in timing remains low. Brief reductions
to IFR conditions will be possible during heavier showers and
thunderstorms, and gusty winds may also accompany the heavier
shower/storm activity.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25