180
FXUS64 KHUN 071042
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
542 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

As a cold front begins to lift northward into the TN Valley, low
chances (20% or less) of showers/storms are forecast this
afternoon into the evening with confidence remaining higher
primarily south of the Tennessee River. Mostly cloudy skies are
forecast throughout the day as high temperatures climb into the
low to mid 90s. Dew point temperatures, however, are forecast to
remain in the mid 60s to low 70s. This will allow heat indices to
remain in the mid 90s to low 100s-- keeping us below Heat Advisory
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tonight, lows are forecast to cool into the low to mid 70s under
mostly clear skies. A very low chance of patchy fog exists along
bodies of water.

Monday, heat will be of concern again as highs climb into the mid
to upper 90s with heat indices in the 100-109 degree range. A Heat
Advisory may be needed in future forecast updates for this time
period to account for this, however, medium chances of storms
(40-60%) and increased cloud cover during the afternoon hours
could provide some relief. With any storm that forms, frequent
lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty to damaging winds will be
potential threats.

Model soundings have begun taking an "inverted V" profile with
steep low level lapse rates in addition to ample CAPE. PWATs are
also forecast to reach 2-2.2", exceeding 90th percentile sounding
climatology per BMX. Storms are likely to be extremely slow as
mean wind speed in model soundings continues to be 5 kts or less.
Therefore, Monday`s storms will be efficient rainfall producers
and will have the potential to reside over an area for a prolonged
period of time. This will cause an increased concern for ponding
of water in low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage. With
extremely little shear, tornadoes are not forecast at this time.
Storms are forecast to subside/weaken with the loss of daytime
heating during the late evening hours.

Tuesday, remnants of Beryl are forecast to potentially impact
portions of the TN Valley, bringing us medium to high chances of
thunderstorms (50-70%) ahead of an upper level trough. However,
models continue to trend in favor of keeping heavier rainfall to
our northwest. Rainfall chances decrease overnight (10-20%) before
returning Wednesday afternoon (30-40%). The Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has placed most of our area in a Marginal (threat
level 1 out of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall. This means there is
at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
within 25 miles of an area within the outlook. Due to the track
continuing to trend to the northwest, we urge everyone to check
back in to the latest guidance as we move into the early work week
on this system and the local forecast for the TN Valley. Heat on
Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be of concern as heat
indices climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s. However, cloud
cover and rainfall could mitigate the need for heat-related
products.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The long term period will continue to bring high temperatures in
the 90s. However, heat indices are forecast to remain below heat
product threshold. A warming trend is in store, however, as
temperatures climb into the upper 90s by Saturday. We continue to
encourage everyone to stay hydrated, avoid leaving pets or
children in unattended vehicles, and avoid being outdoors during
the hottest part of the day. Rain chances during this time remain
low due to lack of synoptic forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period with
light and variable winds and scattered high clouds.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25