Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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043 FXUS64 KHUN 041336 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 836 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 836 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A tranquil start to this Independence Day as sunshine is in abundance across the Tennessee Valley. With the upper level ridge still remaining over the Southeast, expect a similar day to yesterday with hot and humid conditions and low chances for afternoon thunderstorms. The Heat Advisory continues with afternoon highs forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s with max heat index values between 100F-109F, with the highest values further to the west. While we are not expecting any severe thunderstorms, any storm that does develop will have the potential to produce gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The Heat Advisory continues overnight due to the very limited relief from the heat as low temperatures will again range between 75 to 80 degrees in most locations. A mid/upper trough will pivot from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes late tonight into Friday. Hi-Res guidance shows an MCS developing along this boundary well to our north and west this evening over the Ozarks and drifting toward the Mid South vicinity by early Friday morning. This activity will likely weaken considerably as its remnants move into the Tennessee mid/late Friday morning, but it will still bring some low to medium chances for showers and storms along with higher cloud cover. Additional convection will likely redevelop later in the afternoon/evening along this remnant boundary, where coverage is forecast to be much higher (80-100%). Depending on how much destabilization can occur, a few of these storms may become locally strong with gusty winds and heavy downpours being the threats. These clouds and high rain chances will be the "wild card" with respect to heat impacts on Friday. Given highs still progged to reach the mid 90s and peak heat indices still forecast to exceed or come close to 105 degrees, will maintain the Heat Advisory through 7 PM Friday. Should more heating become apparent and/or rain chances lessen, another solid day of widespread dangerous heat will likely evolve in this hot/humid air mass. The frontal boundary will push south and east into central Alabama Friday night into Saturday. However, with this boundary still in our vicinity low chances for showers/storms will remain in the forecast for Saturday. A slightly cooler/drier air mass will help to keep the dangerous heat at bay, however. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common -- with peak heat index values remaining below 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 On Sunday, upper level ridging looks to be stretched over the Atlantic and down through the Deep South. A large upper trough will dominate the central CONUS but also extend up into the Ohio Valley and Canada. This leaves the local area in southwesterly flow aloft, and this will continue through at least Monday night until the trough finally starts to swing to the east/northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface front that is slated to move south of the area on Saturday is expected to meander over this region through early next week. Another cold front is then anticipated to progress over the Ohio Valley by midweek. For sensible weather, after a dry day on Sunday, daily chances (generally low to medium, 30-60%) of showers and storms are forecast through midweek. This is especially true during peak heating (afternoon hours). Sufficient instability for thunderstorm development is anticipated, along with shear around 20 knots. While severe weather is not expected at this time, heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds will all be possible in any thunderstorms that do develop. Additionally, the chances of showers/storms and amount of cloud cover will cause temperatures to be slightly cooler than we`ve seen this week, with values in the lower to mid 90s Sunday and Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Expecting lows to mainly be in the upper 60s lower 70s each night. Even though the forecast calls for a bit cooler conditions, it will still be warm (especially early next week). Please continue to be cautious if you have outdoor plans. Take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each terminal through the period. Have added a PROB30 at both sites between 21-00z for the possibility of an isolated TSRA impacting either terminal and causing brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, a mostly clear sky and light winds will prevail through the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016. TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP