275
FXUS64 KHGX 060104
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
804 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

SE Texas will experience a significant pattern change heading into
the weekend as a mid/upper level trough digs across the Great lakes
while Beryl continues northwestward into the Southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. The mid level ridge over the SE CONUS weakens and shifts
eastward, which should bring mild relief from the heat and better
rain chances. A weak frontal boundary associated with the
aforementioned upper trough has recently crossed through the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, currently producing a thin line of
showers/thunderstorms. This features is expected to slow/stall later
this evening, but where exactly it stalls out remains uncertain. The
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area has the best chance of getting these
showers/storms, though coverage will still be very isolated, that is
if the line can even make it there to begin with. However, the mid
level ridge still remains sufficiently strong this afternoon to
bring oppressive heat across the region. Therefore, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect across all of SE Texas through 7 PM Tonight.

On Saturday, shortwave impulses from disturbances further north,
along with PVA from Beryl, should provide more robust support for
afternoon showers/storms. CAM guidance suggests scattered to
numerous thunderstorms activity throughout much of SE Texas, which
may provide more widespread relief from the heat. Highs on Saturday
will still be in the 90s, though heat indices will range from 102-
109 F. Not quite at the level for a Heat Advisory (or nearly as
extensive), though still close. Either way, heat should not be an
issue for much longer, as the effects of Beryl will become more
prominent heading into Sunday.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The main forecast concern in the long-term is focused towards the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico with the proximity of Tropical Storm
Beryl. Beryl is currently located near the Yucatan Peninsula and is
moving west-northwest into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We will
continue to monitor its track and intensity as atmospheric
conditions remain favorable for this system to move west-northwest
into the Lower to Middle TX coast early next week. Synoptically
speaking (large-scale view), a sub tropical ridge to our east and an
upper-level trough across north-central CONUS are allowing Beryl to
keep a west-northwest and then northward track into TX, almost
parallel to the coast. In fact, the aforementioned upper-lvl trough
will become quasi-stationary before finally moves eastward after mid-
week. Vertical (boundary layer) conditions remain favorable once
Beryl enters the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. For this reason,
the latest National Hurricane Center advisory brings Beryl as
category 1 hurricane, just before it makes landfall over the Lower
to Middle TX coast early Monday.

In terms of hazards and impacts, as of now, deep tropical moisture
will keep PWs into the 2.5 to 2.8 inch range across SE TX, mainly
Monday and Tuesday. With that being said, increasing rain and storm
chances are expected Sunday into Tuesday with scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to pin point
specific rainfall totals. Overall, WPC`s QPF guidance brings 5 to 10
inches with localized amounts across portions of the Texas Gulf
Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of
next week. Regardless the final track and intensity of Beryl,
conditions are expected to deteriorate along the TX coast Sunday
into Tuesday with increasing rain/storm chances (resulting in
flooding), significant coastal flooding, elevated winds,
seas/swells, high rip currents risk. Again, uncertainty in track and
intensity remains high and fluctuations in the track, intensity and
impacts will change in the next couple of days.

Current Hazards:
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the TX coast from the mouth of
the Rio Grande northward to Sargent, TX.
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the TX coast from the mouth
of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent, TX.
- Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for all Gulf-facing beaches,
including the Matagorda Peninsula, Brazoria County beaches,
Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula.

Remember, a Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
(sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the next
48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means that there is a possibility of
life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
shoreline generally withing 48 hours. Stay weather prepared, and
stay tuned to the latest forecast updates.

Wednesday and beyond, enough moisture and warm and humid southerly
surface winds will keep rain/storm chances throughout the end of the
week. Mostly cloudy skies and increasing rain chances will keep
temperatures near to slightly below normal the upcoming week.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions currently across SE TX sites with a few isolated
SH/TS mainly across the Piney Woods region (around and NE of UTS).
Light VRB winds expected tonight into Sat morning. Winds will
become ESE to SE and increase to 5-10 KTS Sat afternoon. Another
round of SH/TS can be expected during the day, mainly over areas
west of I-45 and locations closer to the waters during the morning
and expand east and north into the central and northern counties
of the CWA during the afternoon to evening hours. Apart from
lightning and some gusty winds, reduced vis/cigs could occur at
times. Rain chances will gradually decrease later in the evening
and early night hours. Light VRB winds to be expected again Sat
night.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Surface high pressure centered over north-eastern Gulf will continue
to bring light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and low seas
through at least late Saturday. Attention then turns to early next
week as marine and beach conditions deteriorate with the approaching
Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Beryl is currently a Tropical Storm located
near the Yucatan Peninsula. It is expected to move west-northwest
into the southern TX coast over the next few days, intensifying as a
category 1 hurricane Sunday into Monday just before making landfall.
Uncertainty in track remains moderate to high, and fluctuations in
the intensity as it moves over the Gulf waters are expected.
However, confidence in elevated seas/swells, strong winds, coastal
flooding, strong rip currents and moderate to heavy rainfall is
increasing after Sunday. Mariners are encourage to stay tuned to the
latest forecast both from weather.gov and the National Hurricane
Center (hurricanes.gov) to get the latest forecast and impacts
information across the Upper TX coast. Marine conditions should
gradually improve after Tuesday with light to moderate onshore winds
and seas. Dangerous beach conditions will still persist with
moderate to high risk of rip currents along all Gulf facing beaches
through the end of the upcoming week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  76  96 /  20  50  20  20
Houston (IAH)  79  95  79  94 /  20  60  20  40
Galveston (GLS)  81  92  82  89 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ335-336-436.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Coastal Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ214-313-337-
     338-437>439.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ335-336-436.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ330-350-370.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...JM