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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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350 FXUS64 KHGX 100752 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Today is National Lazy Day, which works out perfectly because today will be a fantastic day to stay curled up indoors in the AC and out of the heat! Ridging aloft continues to prevail with mid level high pressure continuing to sit overhead. With yesterday`s frontal boundary now washed out a bit and sitting west of the I-45 corridor, we`ll be able to mix out more efficiently during the afternoon hours with some slightly drier air in place. This means that although air temperatures will still be in the upper 90s for most of Southeast TX, heat indices for most will only be in the 103-107F range. As a result, the Heat Advisory has been cancelled for most of the area. Locations south of I-10 and west of I-45 will see heat indices in the 107-109F range, so a Heat Advisory remains in effect for Fort Bend/Brazoria Counties and counties westward. The latest high-res model guidance shows some potential for isolated convection around Matagorda Bay this afternoon, but with a subsidence inversion layer aloft (~850-800mb) and 500mb heights around 594-596 dam...it`ll be tough for much to develop. The differences between Saturday and Sunday are subtle at best. We`ll have slightly warmer 850mb temperatures (increasing from 19- 21C on Saturday to 20-22C on Sunday) and slightly drier air. That roughly translates to temperatures being right about the same as Saturday`s plus (north) or minus (coast) a degree. There is one other thing...another frontal boundary backdoors in from the east to far eastern portions of Southeast TX on Saturday night. This front is not expected to reach far enough west to make it to the I-45 corridor, and it won`t do much other than reinforce the slightly drier air already in place. It`ll allow for a few spots in the Piney Woods to drop into the low 70s overnight, but the rest of us will be stuck with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. As heat indices continue to top out near the Heat Advisory criteria ( 108F), please continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion), drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The mid/upper level ridge across the area and surface high pressure off to our east will continue to be the main players in this long term period. A majority of the area will be staying dry, but we will need to watch for possible showers and/or thunderstorms (mainly south of I-10) as weak disturbances/shortwaves try to round the base of the ridge. The main concern will continue to be the above normal temperatures and associated elevated heat index numbers. While daily high temperatures peak in the upper 90s to around 100, heat advisories are clearly in play with peak heat index values mainly in a 108-112 range. We will also need to monitor for possible excessive heat warnings. We must emphasize again...continue to practice heat safety by staying hydrated, avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Pet owners, if the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for your pets` paws. 42 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Light and variable winds are expected overnight, with isolated patchy fog possible at LBX during the early morning hours. West to northwesterly winds develop Saturday morning, becoming variable once again Saturday evening. VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Light winds and low seas will prevail. During the overnight hours, winds may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances remain low. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 97 79 98 79 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 83 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ226-227-235>237- 335>337. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...03 MARINE...42