564
FXUS64 KHGX 042337
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure aloft over the SE CONUS will continue to bring hot
conditions across SE Texas through the end of the week. NAEFS and
GEFS indicate that 500mb heights will around the 90th to 97.5th
percentile for this time of the year, while deterministic models
show midlevel heights ranging from 593-594 dam. 850mb temperatures
will still be around 18-22C, commonly seen with summertime heat
such as this. Isolated showers and storms will still be possible
this afternoon along the sea breeze. However, rainfall has been
very sparse these last several days, so by in large most areas
will not receive any rainfall this afternoon. We`ll see this
pattern begin to change Friday as an upper level trough digs
through the Great Lakes. This feature is progged to weaken the mid
level high, while simultaneously pushing a weak frontal boundary
across the ArkLaTex area. CAM guidance suggests that this feature
will help initiate storms across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area Friday afternoon. Though, rainfall coverage will still be too
little to have a significant impact on temperatures across SE
Texas as a whole.

Highs through Friday will still be in the 90s with isolated spots
approaching triple digits. Lows will be in the mid 70s to lower
80s. Heat indices still range from 105-111 during the afternoon
hours. The Heat Risk through Friday is still expected to be Major,
indicating that heat related illnesses will be more prevalent,
especially for those with inadequate cooling or poor hydration.
WBGT values still suggest that those participating in strenuous
outdoor activities may experience Extreme heat stress. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect across all of SE Texas until 7 PM
Friday.

As this hazardous heat continues, be sure to practice good heat
safety habits. Drink plenty of water and avoid strenuous outdoor
activities during the hottest part of the day. Wear lightweight
and loose fitting clothing when possible. Stay in an air-
conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives
and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left
unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Know the signs and
symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Check with your
local authorities regarding the potential opening of any cooling
centers in your area.

Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do
not underestimate the danger it poses.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Although the highs cool off by a degree or two on Saturday,
conditions will remain hot with highs mostly in the mid to upper
90s. Moisture convergence over Southeast Texas will unfortunately
not bring much relief from the heat and help maintain heat
indices of 105-110 deg F for most of the local area. Thus,
additional Heat Advisories could be issued for Saturday. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms are possible, in particular
during the afternoon to early evening hours, as a boundary lingers
across the region and interacts with a slightly moist/unstable
airmass.

Sunday into Monday, higher rain chances are possible as Beryl
continues to track north northwest and moves across the
northeastern coastal border of Mexico and southern Texas sometime
late Sunday night or early Monday morning. The higher chances for
showers and storms are likely to occur west of I-45, but any
changes in the track/intensity forecast of Beryl could result in
more or less rain chances than what is currently on the forecast.
Beryl could bring high surf and strong rip currents along the
coasts/beaches, therefore, make sure to keep tabs on the latest
forecasts and make the appropriate preparations if you are
planning to visit our coastal locations or explore the Gulf waters
this weekend and/or early next week as conditions can be
dangerous.

Trailing behind Beryl is another tropical disturbance and
fortunately, environmental conditions will not be conducive for
development. However, a surge of moisture associated to the
disturbance could move into the Texas coasts Tuesday into
Wednesday and rise PWs to 2.4 to 2.7 inches. The local
environmental conditions look to be favorable for several more
rounds of scattered to widespread showers and isolated storms, in
particular on Tuesday. With all the cloud coverage and rain, we
could at least get a little break in the heat with highs possibly
ranging between the upper 80s to low 90s through mid week. We will
however, need to keep an eye on rainfall rates as well as soil
saturation given that we could experience minor low lying, poor
drainage, and street flooding. Again, the rain chances and impacts
will ultimately depend on how the disturbance and associated
moisture tracks. Therefore, continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

Fore more information regarding weather conditions for Southeast
Texas, visit weather.gov/hgx and for information regarding
tropical cyclone activity, visit nhc.noaa.gov

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Of course, no sooner than I pull the VCSH for the day due to lack
of development, one single solitary storm fires up near the 10SM
circles for both IAH and HOU. Return a VCTS for those two until
the storm dies off. Beyond that, little change. VFR throughout,
except perhaps some brief stretches around the Houston terminals
around fireworks time. Winds would make any visibility
restriction more likely at IAH than HOU/SGR. Light/VRB winds
tonight, coming up generally southerly later tomorrow morning.

However, things get modestly trickier tomorrow as a weak front
sags on in. Expect variable to even northerly/northeasterly winds
from IAH northward as the boundary drops in for the afternoon.
Also have VCSH in place at UTS, CXO, and IAH, though confidence in
SHRA/TSRA holding together is not terribly high right now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the
next few days. Winds and seas will be on the rise later this weekend
into the first half of the upcoming week as first Beryl moves
into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the northeastern coast of
Mexico and then another tropical disturbance follows a similar
path (slightly more south) days later. Elevated water levels along
the Bays, high surf, and strong rip currents are possible.
Moreover, associated to these two systems, several rounds of
showers and storms can be expected and could result in higher
winds/seas in and near strong storms.

Additional changes in the track/intensity of Beryl and the
subsequent tropical disturbance are possible during the next few
days, thus, continue to monitor the progress of both systems.

24

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Beryl continues to work its way westward towards the Yucatan
Peninsula. Beryl is expected to continue north-northwestward
after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and have a landfall near the
Texas/Mexico border on Sunday night or early Monday morning.

Keep updated with the latest National Hurricane Center advisories
(nhc.noaa.gov) as any significant changes in the track and/or
intensity forecast could lead to significant changes in our area
forecast.

24/42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  98  77  95 /   0  20  20  40
Houston (IAH)  80  98  79  96 /  30  20  30  60
Galveston (GLS)  83  93  82  93 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cotto