200
FXUS64 KHGX 080921
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
421 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Hurricane Beryl is making landfall near Matagorda early this morning.
Surface observations and bouy data have been indicating peak wind gusts
so far up to 89 mph in and around the eye wall (2:06am and 2:12am at
the Matagorda Bay Entrance Channel NOS site) and generally in a 50
to 60 mph range in some of the outer rainbands. Tide levels so far
have been 2 to 5 feet above normal, but expect these numbers to go
even higher during upcoming high tide times. Weak circulation centers
have been observed in some of the storms too, and a Tornado Watch is
in effect for parts of the area until 10 AM. Perhaps more significantly
are the heavy rains that have been occuring with Beryl. As of 340 AM...
highest numbers so far have been closer to the circulation center
(LCRA rain gauges have recorded 4.89" near Matagorda and 4.49 inches
at Sargent) and around 2 to 3 inches with some of the more intense
outer rainbands in/around western Galveston County. These feeder bands
will continue to work their way inland with possible north-south training
eventually setting up near and around the I-45 corridor as the rest
of the overnight, morning and early afternoon hours progress. It still
looks like some locations in our area are going to end up with 5 to
10 inch rainfall amounts with locally higher numbers possible. Avoid
driving this morning if possible. If you have to drive, NEVER NEVER
NEVER attempt to drive across flooded roads.

Showers/storms will come to an end as the afternoon progresses (generally
from south to north) as Beryl weakens and moves north of and out of
our area. Much lower winds and decreasing tide levels can be expected
with this exit. Enough instability and available moisture will bring
another shot of showers and thunderstorms to the area tomorrow with
activity generally staying confined to locations closer to the coast
and coastal counties.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Pattern setting up (generally in between two mid/upper level ridges)
should allow for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
for each day with a majority of what develops staying closer to the
coast and coastal counties. High temperatures will be warming back
up into the low 90s for much of the area for the rest of the week
followed by low to mid 90s toward the end of the week and over the
weekend. Low temperatures starting out in a low to mid 70s range for
the rest of the week will warm back up into the mid to upper 70s
range toward the end of the week and over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Initial outer rainbands from Beryl are starting to penetrate
coastal communities in Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston
counties tonight. Expect additional rainbands to push northward
through the overnight and early morning hours. These outer
rainbands will bring squally conditions at times as Beryl
continues its northward motion. Beryl is expected to weaken during
the day on Monday after it has made landfall, and continues to
progress to the north and northeast; however, north/south
orientated rain bands could possibly set up that may continue to
bring tropical storm conditions to several terminals even as the
center of Beryl has moved north of SE Texas.

Tropical storm force winds will be developing over the next few
hours, with coastal terminals seeing the first initial degradation
of conditions. These conditions will spread inland throughout the
overnight and early morning hours with sustained winds of
(34-73kts with higher gusts possible). Winds should begin to
decrease by the late afternoon starting at coastal terminals and
extending NE to the remainder of the terminals. CIGS look to lift
slower through the afternoon, but should improve through the
evening and early overnight periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Beryl made landfall as a hurricane near Matagorda, on the
east side of Matagorda Bay. Conditions are very near their worst
early this morning, and will continue into the morning as the
storm begins to move inland, when it will finally begin to weaken
again. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Matagorda Bay and
all coastal Gulf waters. Galveston Bay remains in a Tropical
Storm Warning. Conditions are expected to gradually improve by
this afternoon, and especially this evening, when Beryl exits
Southeast Texas to the north/northeast. By Tuesday and beyond,
much lower winds and seas are expected. However, there will be
daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Luchs

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Heavy rainfall has made its way inland with Hurricane Beryl
continuing to make its trek into Southeast Texas. We`ve already seen
3-5" of rain fall across portions of Matagorda/Brazoria counties
where a Flash Flood Warning was issued earlier this morning. In
total, we are still expecting widespread totals of 5-10" with
locally higher amounts up to 15". This is expected to result in
widespread action to minor river flooding with isolated moderate to
major river flooding. With high-resolution guidance still favoring
rainfall totals of 4-6+" traveling along the I-45 corridor, we are
also monitoring for potential bayou/creek flooding as well around
the greater Houston metro area. Rainfall rates within the convective
bands can reach 2-3" per hour and with these bands moving over the
same locations repeatedly, this can quickly result in urban
flooding. While these convective bands have been mainly centered
around Matagorda and Brazoria counties early this morning, as Beryl
travels further inland the flood threat will increase for portions
of Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties later this morning.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79  71  90  72 / 100  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)  81  74  90  75 / 100  20  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  79  89  80 / 100  40  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ226-235>237-335>337-436>438.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-
     227-238-300-313-338-439.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...WFO TAE
HYDROLOGY...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs
TROPICAL...Luchs
MESO...24/Wood
DSS...Fowler/Wood