983
FXHW60 PHFO 021926
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
926 AM HST Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of Hawaii will drive moderate to fresh trade
winds through the rest of the week with a slight taper off this
weekend. Trades will bring in clouds and showers focusing windward
and mauka mainly overnight and early mornings. Upper ridging over
the islands will maintain stable conditions over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure north of Hawaii will drive moderate to fresh trade
winds through the rest of week with a slight taper off this
weekend. Visible satellite and radar show an area of showery
clouds over Oahu and Maui County pushing through east to west in
the trade wind flow. Expect these showers to bring light rain
accumulations as it tracks west through this evening. After this
area of clouds and showers clear the island chain, drier air will
move in front upstream. Trades will bring in clouds and showers at
times over the next week focusing over windward and mauka mainly
overnight and early mornings. Leeward areas should remain mostly
sunny to partly cloudy in the coming days with the exception of
the afternoon cloud build ups across leeward Haleakala and Big
Island. Upper ridging over the islands will maintain stable conditions
over the next week, so no significant rainfall accumulations are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through
tonight. A band of low clouds and showers will move from east to
west across the state today, bringing MVFR conditions to windward
areas as it moves through. Conditions will improve behind the
band this afternoon, though some showery weather may linger
across Kauai into the evening hours. AIRMET Sierra is in effect
for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Oahu,
Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. The AIRMET may need to be
expanded to include Kauai later today.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north northeast of the state will bring fresh to
strong trades through most of the week. By this weekend, the high
will weaken and move off to the northeast as a trough approaches
from the west and allow for trades to ease slightly across the
local waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through
Thursday morning for the waters and channels around the Maui and
The Big Island.

No significant south swells are expected during the forecast
period. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast
swells will keep south facing shores from going flat.

Flat to tiny surf conditions will continue along north and west
facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf will be
close to seasonal levels through late this week, as fresh to
strong east northeast trades persist over and upstream of the
islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the California
coast should bring a small, medium period, northeast swell
Saturday into early next week. Some of this swell should wrap into
select north facing exposures as well.

Water levels running roughly 0.9 ft higher than normal around the
Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor
flooding issues between July 2nd and July 6th with peak water
levels expected on July 4th. Our last full moon, we did receive
reports of some areas of the coastline becoming inundated with the
high tide such as Coconut Island and Puhi Bay. A Coastal Flood
Statement will likely be needed for the Big Island near the 4th of
July.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Kino/Bedal