478
FXHW60 PHFO 070127
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
327 PM HST Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable moderate trade wind pattern with mainly light windward
and mauka showers will prevail through Monday. Increasing trade
winds and slightly wetter conditions are possible during the
middle of next week, with breezy trades continuing into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar and satellite imagery show partly cloudy skies with isolated
light windward and mauka showers this afternoon under moderate
trade winds. Little change to the overall forecast is expected
through the weekend as a surface ridge far north of the islands
maintains our current trade wind weather regime. Stable lower
atmospheric conditions across the state will help to limit
rainfall amounts with any shower that develops this weekend.

Guidance continues to show high pressure far northeast of the
state strengthening towards the middle of next week. This will
tighten the local pressure gradient across the islands resulting
in slightly stronger trade winds. Guidance also continues to show
a slight increase in precipitable water moving across the state
Tuesday through Thursday next week which will bring wetter trade
wind conditions to windward and mauka areas, with some of these
showers possibly spilling over into leeward areas at times.
Conditions return to a more typical summertime breezy trade wind
pattern late next week and continue into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected through the
rest of the weekend. Brief periods of low cigs, SHRA and MVFR
conds will be possible at times mainly over windward and mauka
areas. Otherwise conditions should remain mainly VFR.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridging north of the state will produce gentle to
locally fresh trades tonight through early- next week. By mid-
next week, a surface high northeast of the area will strengthen
and generate moderate to locally strong trades. This will likely
warrant a Small Craft Advisory for the typically windy zones
around Maui County and the Big Island.

Surf remains near or slightly below seasonal norms along south
facing shorelines through much of next week. Mixed swell out of
the southeast and south southwest will maintain the small surf.
By next weekend, however, guidance introduces a series of long
period south swells.

Flat to tiny surf persists for northern exposures through the
forecast period.

A short to medium period NE swell is expected to push through the
local waters later this afternoon. As of 2 PM HST, near shore
buoys had yet to indicate its arrival. Once, established, this
swell should maintain small surf along east- facing shores even as
background trade wind remains rather weak. Choppy conditions
return mid- next week as trades strengthen.

The combination of higher than normal water levels and afternoon
spring tides are resulting in water levels running over half a
foot above guidance around the Big Island and Maui. This will
cause minor coastal flooding issues for both Big Island and Maui
this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon during peak high
tide.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...Kino
MARINE...Thomas