Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
097 FXHW60 PHFO 031940 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 940 AM HST Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of Hawaii will drive moderate to fresh trade winds into next week with a slight taper off this weekend. Trades will bring in clouds and showers focusing windward and mauka mainly overnight and early mornings. Upper ridging over the islands will maintain stable conditions over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure north of Hawaii will drive moderate to fresh trade winds through the rest of week with a slight taper off this weekend. Visible satellite and radar show an area of showery clouds over Kauai and Oahu pushing through east to west in the trade wind flow. Expect these showers to bring light rain accumulations for mainly windward slopes. Trades will bring in clouds and showers at times over the next week focusing over windward and mauka mainly overnight and early mornings. Leeward areas should remain mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the coming days with the exception of the afternoon cloud build ups across leeward Haleakala and Big Island. Upper ridging over the islands will maintain stable conditions over the next week, so no significant rainfall accumulations are expected. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue for the next few days. Brief MVFR conditions are possible mainly along north through east slopes of each island. Elsewhere mostly VFR conditions are expected. AIRMET Sierra is now in effect for mountain obscuration along windward slopes of Oahu and Kauai due to some enhanced trade showers. Conditions are expected to improve there by this afternoon. && .MARINE... High pressure northeast of the state will gradually shift northeast in response to a trough moving in from the west. Trade winds will remain fresh to strong through tomorrow morning then weaken to moderate to fresh by afternoon and hold into Monday and possibly beyond. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning for the windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island. No significant south swells are expected through Monday. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast swells will keep south facing shores from going flat. Flat to tiny surf conditions will continue along north and west facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf will be close to seasonal levels through late this week as fresh to strong east northeast trades persist over and upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the California coast should bring a small, medium period, northeast swell Saturday into early next week. Some of this swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as well. Water levels higher than normal around the Big Island, combined with the new moon tides, could cause minor coastal flooding issues through Saturday, with peak water levels expected Thursday. Recent observations from Hilo Bay and Kawaihae show water levels getting over 1 foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), thus a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the coastal zones around the Big Island. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...TS MARINE...Bedal/Wroe