Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
626 FXHW60 PHFO 040137 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 337 PM HST Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of Hawaii will drive moderate to locally fresh trade winds into next week with a slight taper off this weekend. Trades will bring in clouds and showers focusing windward and mauka mainly overnight and early mornings. Upper ridging over the islands will maintain stable conditions over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure north of Hawaii will drive moderate to locally fresh trade winds through the rest of week with a slight taper off this weekend. Visible satellite and radar show scattered clouds and isolated showers around the state this afternoon, with a bit more cloud build ups over windward areas and leeward Big Island. Upstream to the east, a few more showery clouds will make their way to the state this evening and bring light rain accumulations. Expect this weather trend to continue with trades bringing in clouds and showers at times focusing over windward and mauka mainly overnight and early mornings. Leeward areas should remain mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the coming days with the exception of the afternoon cloud build ups across leeward Haleakala and Big Island. Upper ridging over the islands will maintain stable conditions over the next week, so no significant rainfall accumulations are expected. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue for the next few days. Brief MVFR conditions are possible mainly along north through east slopes of each island. Elsewhere, mostly VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... High pressure northeast of the state will gradually shift northeast in response to a trough moving in from the west. Trade winds will weaken slightly in response, but remain in the moderate or greater into the coming week. The Small Craft Advisory for the windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island will likely be cancelled tomorrow morning. No significant south swells are expected until next week. A series of small south-southwest and southeast swells will keep south facing shores from going flat in the meantime. Flat to tiny surf conditions will continue along north and west facing shores into the coming week. East shore surf will be close to seasonal levels through late this week as fresh to strong east northeast trades persist over and upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the California coast should bring a small, medium period, northeast swell Saturday and Sunday. Some of this swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as well. Water levels higher than normal around the Big Island, combined with the new moon tides, could cause minor coastal flooding issues through Saturday, with peak water levels expected tomorrow. Recent observations from Hilo Bay and Kawaihae show water levels getting over 1 foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), thus a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the coastal zones around the Big Island. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...TS MARINE...Wroe/Bedal