Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
652 FXHW60 PHFO 030131 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 331 PM HST Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of Hawaii will drive moderate to fresh trade winds through the rest of the week with a slight taper off this weekend. Trades will bring in clouds and showers focusing windward and mauka mainly overnight and early mornings. Upper ridging over the islands will maintain stable conditions over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure north of Hawaii will drive moderate to fresh trade winds through the rest of week with a slight taper off this weekend. Visible satellite and radar show an area of showery clouds over Oahu pushing through east to west in the trade wind flow. Expect these showers to bring light rain accumulations as it tracks west through this evening. After this area of clouds and showers clear the island chain, drier air will move in front upstream. Trades will bring in clouds and showers at times over the next week focusing over windward and mauka mainly overnight and early mornings. Leeward areas should remain mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the coming days with the exception of the afternoon cloud build ups across leeward Haleakala and Big Island. Upper ridging over the islands will maintain stable conditions over the next week, so no significant rainfall accumulations are expected. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue for the next few days. A weakening band of low clouds and showers continues to move westward across the state, currently between Kauai and Oahu. This shower band will bring MVFR conditions to windward areas as it moves through, with clearing and drier conditions in its wake. Showery weather may linger across Kauai into the evening hours. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Oahu. Conditions have improved across the islands to the east. The AIRMET may need to be expanded to include Kauai within the next hour or so. Anticipate few to scattered clouds and minimal shower activity across the rest of the state through Tuesday. && .MARINE... High pressure northeast of the state will bring fresh to strong trades through most of the week. By this weekend, the high will weaken and move off to the northeast as a trough approaches from the west and allow for trades to ease slightly across the local waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least Thursday morning for the windier waters and channels around the Maui and The Big Island. No significant south swells are expected during the forecast period. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast swells will keep south facing shores from going flat. Flat to tiny surf conditions will continue along north and west facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf will be close to seasonal levels through late this week, as fresh to strong east northeast trades persist over and upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the California coast should bring a small, medium period, northeast swell Saturday into early next week. Some of this swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as well. Water levels running roughly 0.6 ft higher than normal around the Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor flooding issues through July 6th with peak water levels expected on July 4th. Recent observations from Hilo Bay and Kawaihae show water levels getting over 1 foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), thus a Coastal Flood Statement was issued for the coastal zones around the Big Island. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...TS MARINE...Kino/Bedal