496
FXUS61 KGYX 060055
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
855 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms move into the region this evening with
storms becoming more widespread by Saturday morning. Some patchy dense
fog is also possible, especially along the coast through
tomorrow morning. Scattered thunderstorms move through ahead of
a cold front tomorrow afternoon, with the front moving through
tomorrow night and Sunday. High pressure builds in by early in
the week, with a tranquil Monday and Tuesday. More storms are
possible by Tuesday night as the next cold front approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
9pm Update...Vertical extent of showers and storms should be
limited overnight as surface instability tapers this evening.
Decreased coverage of thunder tonight as well as tried to hone
in on more specific areas of showers. This mainly revolves
around area of rain making its way north out of southern New
England. Still some elevated instability for the night time
hours so some of these showers could have moderate rates with
them as it works along the coast overnight. With increasing
clouds and fog expect temps to not cool a whole lot more from
their current state. That means fairly widespread low 70s for
much of the area.

Previous Discussion...
A weak stalled frontal boundary is slowly lifting northward
through the area this afternoon as a weak warm front, bringing
in warmer and more humid air, as well as kicking off some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. These continue to increase
in coverage through the late afternoon and into the evening
hours.

The best coverage looks to be across northern areas and the
higher terrain. A second area of showers and storms is likely to
develop across southern New Hampshire this afternoon, and is
already starting to show up on radar. These gradually drift
eastward along the coastline through the evening hours, and into
the overnight hours. They may weaken a bit, but increase in
coverage through the overnight as forcing improves slightly
ahead of a cut off low across the Great Lakes. This keeps the
chance of showers ongoing most of the night across Maine, while
New Hampshire mostly dries out after the evening activity. A
humid night is expected across the area, with low mainly ranging
from the mid 60s to the low 70s. Fog along the immediate
coastline likely spreads inland through the late evening hours,
and lingers through daybreak tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After a bit of a break during the morning hours, showers and
storms increase by late morning across western areas as a cold
front approaches from the west. There remains some disagreement
amongst the high res guidance as to how expansive the morning
convection will be. Should it be less, we likely see better
heating through the midday hours, allowing for more instability
and a better chance of some stronger storms during the afternoon
hours. Scattered storms look likely, but how strong and
widespread they become remains a bit uncertain. Either way, more
showers and storms move eastward through the afternoon as the
front approaches, likely reaching the coastline by the early
afternoon hours. It looks like the rain mostly ends by the late
afternoon, bringing a drier period for the late afternoon.

Conditions remain humid overnight tomorrow night, with patchy
fog developing in many spots. Relatively drier air doesn`t begin
to arrive until near daybreak on Sunday, and moreso during the
day on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
----------------------------------------------------------------
Summary:
*Temperatures expected to run above average through early next week.

*Pleasant weather likely on Monday, through scattered storms return
by Wednesday.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Discussion: A low finally exits the region Sunday morning, bringing
generally clearing skies and perhaps a stray thunderstorm over
central Maine.  High pressure builds just to the southeast over the
Atlantic, ushering in hot and moist air through Tuesday. The period
of hotter weather concludes by Wednesday, when a low moves across
the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms. The end of the week
looks generally on the more pleasant side but a stray shower /
thunderstorm remains a possibility.

Aviation: Generally a quiet period for aviators, but lower flight
restrictions are likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Some patchy morning fog is also possible in the
Midcoast and CT river valley on Monday and Tuesday. The fog could
impact sites RKD, LEB, CON, and MHT.

Marine: Light southwesterly flow with 3-5 foot seas is expected to
start the day on Sunday, with winds and seas gradually decreasing
throughout the day as a low exits the region. Quiet seas and light
winds are expected through Tuesday morning. Another incoming low
will then increase seas and winds during the day Tuesday, with
southerly SCA level winds possible by the end of the day and likely
continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Marine fog brings IFR to LIFR to the coastal
terminals and AUG this evening, and lingers into at least mid
morning tomorrow. Fog is also likely for a brief time across
interior terminals later tonight. Fog becomes mainly low stratus
along the coast, and lingers most of the day tomorrow, with
interior terminals seeing MVFR to VFR conditions return. Showers
and storms are likely during the afternoon hours at all
terminals. Fog then clears after the rain in the late afternoon,
but then valley fog is likely at most terminals tomorrow night.

Long Term...
Generally a quiet period for aviators, but lower flight
restrictions are likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some patchy morning fog is also possible in
the Midcoast and CT river valley on Monday and Tuesday. The fog
could impact sites RKD, LEB, CON, and MHT.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Locally dense fog lingers into tomorrow night.
Freshening southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold
front may bring brief gusts to 25kt tomorrow afternoon and
evening. The front slowly clears the waters tomorrow night and
on Sunday.

Long Term...
Light southwesterly flow with 3-5 foot seas is expected to
start the day on Sunday, with winds and seas gradually decreasing
throughout the day as a low exits the region. Quiet seas and light
winds are expected through Tuesday morning. Another incoming low
will then increase seas and winds during the day Tuesday, with
southerly SCA level winds possible by the end of the day and likely
continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Palmer
NEAR TERM...Clair/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Palmer
AVIATION...Clair/Palmer
MARINE...Clair/Palmer