Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
342 FXUS61 KGYX 020606 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 206 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the region today...moving southeast of the New England coast on Wednesday with warm and dry conditions as a result. A shower is possible as a weak frontal boundary crosses the region late Wednesday night. Temperatures and humidity begin to build on Independence Day with this trend continuing through the end of the week. The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A ridge of high pressure will build over the forecast area today. There will be much less wind than yesterday as the surface gradient collapses. Neutral temperature advection aloft will allow for H8 temperatures to be around +11C today. Under mostly sunny conditions and good mixing this afternoon, expect a warmer day with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s away from the shoreline. Along the immediate coast, temperatures will be cooler with a sea breeze developing by afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a chilly night with some upper 40s in the mountains for lows and mainly 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog will develop as well. The ridge will slide off the coast on Wednesday allowing a trough to approach from the west. Warm air advection will allow for some cloudiness to increase during the afternoon. The atmosphere will be initially dry so precipitation should hold off during the daytime hours. Temperaturs will once again reach the 80s across the interior. Right along the coastline, southerly winds will be on the increase and keep things cooler as winds remain off the Gulf of Maine. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High Impact Weather Potential: * Heat indices have some potential for nearing advisory thresholds by this weekend. * Greatest chance for thunderstorms also comes this weekend...with confidence currently low on any severe potential. The details...The cool and dry weather felt in the early part of the work week will change to more warm and humid conditions for the later part of the work week into the weekend. By Wednesday night, the upper level ridge that has been with us will get pushed out as an upper level trough dives southward entering the area by Thursday. Some showers are likely Wednesday night into Thursday but widespread rain is not expected with thunderstorm activity unlikely given the timing of the front. The warm and humid July airmass continues Friday into the weekend with the next best chance for precip being Saturday into Sunday as low pressure to our west pushes a warm/occluded front through the area with the potential for some showers and thunderstorms. Will have to watch heat indices Thursday and beyond as well as temperature aloft would support near advisory level values in some spots if enough sun can be realized during this period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions expected today through Wednesday. There will be some patchy fog mainly across the interior valleys tonight with localized IFR conditions. Long Term...Generally good aviation conditions through the long term forecast period. A few showers are possible late Wednesday night / early Thursday morning with isolated restrictions. Building humidity may result in morning haze/fog at BML/HIE by Friday/Saturday mornings. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA thresholds on all waters through Wednesday. Long Term...High pressure will be located over the waters late Wednesday before a weak cold front stalls over the waters Wednesday night and Thursday. This front will lift back north of the waters on Saturday. The result will be an extended period of relatively light winds/low wave heights. From Thursday onward...increasing moisture may bring some fog over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Arnott