Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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580 FXUS61 KGYX 021814 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to remain overhead tonight, moving southeast of the New England coast on Wednesday with warm and dry conditions as a result. A shower is possible as a weak frontal boundary crosses the region late Wednesday night. Temperatures and humidity begin to build on Independence Day with this trend continuing through the end of the week. The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet night tonight with high pressure nearly overhead. We should radiate again but not quite as good as last night. Therefore lows should be a bit warmer tonight. Wednesday will be a fair weather day with winds picking up from the south as high pressure continues to moves offshore and a cold front approaches from the west. We`ll see an increase in clouds but temperatures will still rise well into the 80s with fairly low dewpoint values. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front approaches from the west Wednesday night bringing a chance of showers later at night and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. A cold front quickly follows but looks to pass with little fanfare Thu. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights: * Scattered showers are possible early with humidity expected to be on the increase for Independence Day *Warm, humid airmass taking control over the weekend with showers expected mainly Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Independence Day and Friday: Isolated showers will be around to start the day Thursday, especially in NH. These showers are expected to be falling apart as they move across the CWA with most models showing any remaining showers to dissipate by late morning. A mix of sun and clouds is expected to develop behind the showers, leaving generally pleasant conditions for the afternoon and evening of the holiday. Temperatures are expected to top out in the lower to middle 80s. Friday looks to remain dry with partly cloudy conditions throughout the region and temperatures topping out in the middle to upper 80s. Dewpoints are expected to remain elevated both days leading to a more humid feel to air. Low temperatures are expected to range through the 60s from north to south. Saturday and Sunday: The pattern becomes more unsettled heading into the weekend as a series of fronts approaches the region from the southwest. There is quite a bit of model uncertainty on the surface features but Saturday looks to start out dry with showers and thunderstorms arriving by the afternoon. Severe weather threat looks minimal but the greatest chance for thunderstorms looks to be over Southern NH where the warm front has a greater chance of lifting. Farther north, the threat for storms is lower as the front is likely to occlude. Showers are expected to linger into Sunday with shower chances decreasing later in the day. The airmass will remain very humid through this period with high temperatures Saturday in the low to mid 80s and mid to upper 80s on Sunday. A few spots in Southern NH may hit 90 degrees by Sunday afternoon. Low temps remain warm in the mid to upper 60s with low 70s possible the urban areas of Southern NH. Monday and Tuesday: Generally pleasant weather is expected Monday. Beyond that, low pressure passing to our north is likely to drop more showers and thunderstorms into our region for Tuesday, however timing is uncertain and confidence is low with this feature. High temperatures are expected to remain in the 80s during this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...VFR tonight through Wednesday night with seabreeze continuing to kick in at the coast this afternoon and evening. A few patches of valley fog possible tonight. A few showers late Wednesday night could bring a period of lowering conditions. Long Term... A brief period of MVFR conditions early Thursday with isolated showers. Otherwise VFR conditions Thursday Midday lasting into Saturday. MVFR conditions with localized IFR Saturday afternoon and evening in scattered showers. MVFR to VFR conditions return on Sunday. && .MARINE... Short Term...A few southerly gusts may approach 25 kt Wednesday evening but sub-sca conditions are expected for the most part tonight through Wednesday. Long Term... Wind and waves approach SCA levels Thursday otherwise an extended period of relatively light winds and low waves are expected Friday through the weekend and into early next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Lulofs / Mousseau