Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
112 FXUS61 KGYX 051306 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 906 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry conditions are expected, however scattered scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at times. Tonight, a low pressure system moves into the region bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Skies clear out on Sunday, with a tranquil Monday expected before unsettled weather returns to the forecast for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 9:05am Update... A quick update to add a little more patchy fog along the immediate coastline today. Scattered sprinkles and showers continue across the area at times, and then more showers and storms are still expected for the afternoon hours. Update... Have added more fog to the forecast for this morning. Have updated the HWO for some dense fog early this morning along the Midcoast region. The fog will slowly dissipate with time this morning only to redevelop once again this evening. Otherwise, very little in the way of changes to the forecast. Prev Disc... An old frontal boundary will remain over the region today. This will allow for considerable cloudiness at times along with scattered showers. As the atmosphere destabilizes with time, a few thunderstorms may occur as well, mainly inland away from the coastline. High temperatures will be in the 80s, however cooler southerly winds off the Gulf of Maine will keep temperatures in the 70s along and near the coastline, especially the Midcoast region. It will be muggy as well as surface dew points increase to near 70 degrees across southern portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A weak trough will approach from the west tonight continuing the chance of showers or thunderstorms along with considerable amounts of cloudiness. A few storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. As a southerly gradient flow continues across the region, marine fog will likely push inland once again which is supported by the latest HREF scenario. It will be a mild night with overnight lows in the 60s to lower 70s over locations such as southern New Hampshire. The trough will weaken but cross the region on Saturday. This will allow for a slightly more robust coverage in the precipitation across the region. It will continue to be warm and muggy with high temperatures reaching the 80s in many locations with dew points reaching the 70s. PWATs will continue to exceed two inches in some areas with a couple storms potentially bringing heavy downpours to the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ----------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: *Temperatures expected to run above average through early next week. *Pleasant weather likely on Monday, through scattered storms return on Tuesday. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Discussion: Most of the inclement weather exits the region by Sunday morning, through a few showers might linger around up along the Canadian border. Otherwise, Sunday and Monday are forecasted to look and feel pleasant, with weak ridging nudging temperatures a little above average and much drier air in place as well. Unsettled weather returns to the forecast Tuesday and may continue through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...A front dissipates near the waters tonight, and then lifts northward as a warm front tomorrow. Increasing moisture leads to patchy dense fog developing tonight, and likely lingering through at least tomorrow night. Conditions remains below SCA through tomorrow night. Scattered showers and storms and patchy LIFR conditions can be expected tonight with the increase of more marine fog once again along and near the coastline. Scattered showers and storms may be more widespread on Saturday with periods of IFR conditions. Long Term... Visibility improves by the end of the day Saturday with thunderstorms possible. The storms exit the region by Sunday morning with VFR likely. Pleasant weather continues on Monday as well, but some fog is possible along the CT River Valley and the Midcoast. && .MARINE... Short Term...A southerly gradient will allow for south winds to gust to as high as 20 kt in the short term portion of the forecast with conditions continuing below SCA thresholds. Marine fog and low visibilities may occur. Long Term... By Sunday morning, the low exits the region, shifting and simmering winds down to 7-12kts from the southwest. Seas decrease through the day Sunday too, with 2-4 foot seas by the end of the day. Seas and wind remain low on Monday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Clair SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Palmer