962
FXUS61 KGYX 030159
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
959 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to remain overhead tonight, moving
southeast of the New England coast on Wednesday with warm and
dry conditions as a result. A shower is possible as a weak
frontal boundary crosses the region late Wednesday night.
Temperatures and humidity begin to build on Independence Day
with this trend continuing through the end of the week. The next
chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms is
expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10PM Update...Forecast is on track tonight, some small changes
for temperatures with most areas now under a surface inversion.
Temperatures should remain warm enough along with some high
clouds to keep fog at bay.

7PM Update...No changes to the forecast except a few small
tweaks to temperatures and cloud cover. Looks like a perfect
July night tonight with low humidity and mostly clear skies as
daytime cumulus field dissipates. Some high thin cirrus will
stream overhead, but that is it for cloud cover tonight. Maybe
some patchy fog in the mountain valleys tonight, but that is it
for sensible weather to speak of.

Quiet night tonight with high pressure nearly overhead. We
should radiate again but not quite as good as last night.
Therefore lows should be a bit warmer tonight.

Wednesday will be a fair weather day with winds picking up from
the south as high pressure continues to moves offshore and a
cold front approaches from the west. We`ll see an increase in
clouds but temperatures will still rise well into the 80s with
fairly low dewpoint values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front approaches from the west Wednesday night bringing a
chance of showers later at night and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm. A cold front quickly follows but looks to pass
with little fanfare Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:

* Scattered showers are possible early with humidity expected to be
  on the increase for Independence Day

*Warm, humid airmass taking control over the weekend with showers
expected mainly Saturday Afternoon into Sunday

Independence Day and Friday:

Isolated showers will be around to start the day Thursday,
especially in NH. These showers are expected to be falling apart as
they move across the CWA with most models showing any remaining
showers to dissipate by late morning. A mix of sun and clouds is
expected to develop behind the showers, leaving generally pleasant
conditions for the afternoon and evening of the holiday.
Temperatures are expected to top out in the lower to middle 80s.
Friday looks to remain dry with partly cloudy conditions throughout
the region and temperatures topping out in the middle to upper 80s.
Dewpoints are expected to remain elevated both days leading to a
more humid feel to air. Low temperatures are expected to range
through the 60s from north to south.

Saturday and Sunday:

The pattern becomes more unsettled heading into the weekend as a
series of fronts approaches the region from the southwest.
There is quite a bit of model uncertainty on the surface features
but Saturday looks to start out dry with showers and thunderstorms
arriving by the afternoon. Severe weather threat looks minimal but
the greatest chance for thunderstorms looks to be over Southern NH
where the warm front has a greater chance of lifting. Farther north,
the threat for storms is lower as the front is likely to occlude.
Showers are expected to linger into Sunday with shower chances
decreasing later in the day. The airmass will remain very humid
through this period with high temperatures Saturday in the low to
mid 80s and mid to upper 80s on Sunday. A few spots in Southern NH
may hit 90 degrees by Sunday afternoon. Low temps remain warm in the
mid to upper 60s with low 70s possible the urban areas of Southern
NH.

Monday and Tuesday:

Generally pleasant weather is expected Monday. Beyond that, low
pressure passing to our north is likely to drop more showers and
thunderstorms into our region for Tuesday, however timing is
uncertain and confidence is low with this feature. High temperatures
are expected to remain in the 80s during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight through Wednesday night with seabreeze
continuing to kick in at the coast this afternoon and evening. A
few patches of valley fog possible tonight. A few showers late
Wednesday night could bring a period of lowering conditions.

Long Term...
A brief period of MVFR conditions early Thursday with isolated
showers. Otherwise VFR conditions Thursday Midday lasting into
Saturday. MVFR conditions with localized IFR Saturday afternoon
and evening in scattered showers. MVFR to VFR conditions return
on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A few southerly gusts may approach 25 kt Wednesday
evening but sub-sca conditions are expected for the most part
tonight through Wednesday.

Long Term...
Wind and waves approach SCA levels Thursday
otherwise an extended period of relatively light winds and low waves
are expected Friday through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Dumont/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Lulofs
AVIATION...
MARINE...