624
FXPQ50 PGUM 080704
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
504 PM ChST Mon Jul 8 2024

Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies across the Marianas with
spotty showers passing through the coastal waters. Winds are gentle
to moderate, with altimetry and buoy data showing combined seas
around 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Not much has changed since the previous forecast. Satellite shows
very little shower active to the east of the Marianas, so expecting
partly cloudy skies and isolated showers to continue through Tuesday
night. A disturbance is expected to pass just south of the Marianas
starting around Wednesday. As this disturbance passes near the
Marianas, there will be an increased potential for scattered
Wednesday through Friday. Decided to add isolated thunderstorms to
the forecast for Wednesday through Thursday as newer model data
suggests that an upper-level trough will develop over the Marianas
around that time, and given the expected increase in shower activity,
it will not take much upper-level instability to get thunderstorms
to develop.

&&

.Marine...
Gentle to moderate trade winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 feet will
continue through the week as the primary swell remains from the east.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will start to increase Wednesday as
an disturbance passes south of the Marianas and into western
Micronesia.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers just to the east of Majuro
with isolated showers present across much of eastern Micronesia.
There is little change in thought from the previous discussions.
Shower coverage should increase to scattered for Kosrae and Pohnpei
tonight as a trade-wind trough moves through the region. Trade-wind
convergence looks to increase towards the second half of the week,
leading towards likely PoPs for Pohnpei, Kosrae, and Majuro.

Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet are near Majuro and 3 to 5 feet are
near Kosrae and Pohnpei. Seas are expected to rise another foot or so
by Tuesday for Kosrae before gradually decreasing later this week
across eastern Micronesia.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite imagery shows isolated showers for Chuuk and Yap with some
scattered showers just west and east of Palau. Isolated showers are
expected on Tuesday for Yap and Palau as the weak circulation and
trough responsible for scattered showers has shifted westward. The
next weather system will begin to impact Chuuk on Tuesday with
scattered showers as a NET moves into western Micronesia. Likely
showers will be possible Wednesday night for Chuuk and Saturday night
for Palau as the NET moves through the region this week.

Gentle westerly winds should continue through much of the week for
Palau, but outside of that marine conditions should remain benign
through the week. Combined seas of 2 to 4 feet will persist for
Palau and Yap this week, while Chuuk may briefly see 3 to 5 foot seas
towards the middle of the week.

$$

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Schank
Micronesia: Williams