914
FXUS62 KGSP 051452
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend.
Meanwhile, a cold front moves in from the north and becomes
stationary near the southern portion of the forecast area on
Saturday. This front will increase the chance for thunderstorm
activity outside the mountains through Sunday. More typical
summertime thunderstorm development returns Monday and persists
through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Friday: Heating up expectedly fast this morning under
lots of early July sunshine.  14z temperatures and dwpts pretty
close to the going fcst so not expecting to make anything more than
isolated upward ticks of the inherited MaxT.  At this point, with
the progged downward nudging of afternoon dwpts, the occurrence of
apparent temperatures of 105 acrs a large enough area in any non
heat advisory zones, i.e. the NC fthls, would be considered low
probability with maybe just Polk/Rutherford Counties breaking
containment.

Small storms starting to fire near the Smokies, and expansion of
deep convective activity acrs the NC and N GA mtns is likely into
early afternoon. Deep convection is expected to drift east out of
the mtns thereafter, with additional storms developing in the
Piedmont late aftn thru the evening. It should be pretty unstable,
with 2000-3000 J/kg of sbCAPE, and enough mid-level dry air for sfc-
delta-theta-E values over 30 K. So a few strong downbursts will be
possible, given the environment. There may be enough shear to limit
pure microbursts, but storms may organize around outflows for some
damaging wind gusts.

Tonight, the cold front should push into the area, providing
continued forcing for convection possibly into the overnight. So
slight chc to low-end chc PoPs will linger, especially near the
TN border. Plenty of cloud cover and elevated dewpts will result
in temps a few degrees above normal, making for a muggy night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Friday...Upper heights begin to fall Sat as a weak sfc
bndry moves into the region. This front looks to stall just south of
the FA and provide a focusing mechanism for widespread convection
during the afternoon. The atmos remains quite moist during this time
with abv normal PWATS and with weak column flow, the stage may be
set for slow and/or back-building cells which could lead to flooding
issues by the later afternoon. The severe risk is not great as mlvl
LRs remain low-end and no sigfnt forcing aloft will be present,
however, a few cells could pulse to severe levels producing large
hail and damaging downburst winds. With dewpts remaining in the l70s
across the srn zones, HI values may once again reach advisory levels
as temps rise abv normal by a few degrees. On Sun, drier air will
work in from the nw/ly mostly abv the sfc, but close enuf to
vertically mix dewpts back to normal. The models have trended a
little drier with sfc hipres attempting to ridge in from the NW, yet
still expect areas east of the mtns to have the best chance of
convec along a weakening yet existing sfc bndry. High temps return
to more normal levels Sun while lows persist a few degrees abv
normal each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 AM Friday...The ext range will see the return of a more
normal summertime pattern. Broad subTrop ridging will dominate aloft
and keep any major fronts north and west of the area, while a sfc
Bermuda High remains in a favorable position to maintain good
Atl/GOM moisture flux into the area each day. Soundings look real
similar each afternoon with warm mlvls and skinny sbCAPE yielding
arnd 1500 J/kg or less each afternoon. Triggering will remain low,
however, some models show weakening vort energy traversing the ridge
Mon afternoon. In any case, not anticipating any organized severe
threat as the column flow remains weak thru the period. However,
PWATS remain abv normal so the potential exists for slow-moving high-
precip storms to create isol hydro issues. Storms should have no
problem activating early on each afternoon as LCLs link up with LFCS
rather quickly in the moist environment. Thus, storm coverage will
likely become abv normal with the mtns zones receiving the highest
PoPs. Max temps return to normal levels with no good indication of
HI issues, while a moist atmos maintains mins a little abv normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern today will be convection
timing and coverage. Guidance in decent agreement on activity firing
across the mountains in the aftn, then slowly expanding/drifting
east into the Piedmont late aftn thru this evening. Have TEMPO
at KAVL and PROB30 groups elsewhere with timing of greatest
chances. Overall, guidance has trended a little slower/later
with the timing, focusing more on the evening hours for the
KCLT area. Winds will be out of the SW, peaking during the
aftn. Convection will wane late in the 06z TAF period, with plenty
of lingering VFR-level cloudiness and light wind. MVFR to IFR
stratus may develop overnight across the area from west to east,
but confidence remains modest.

Outlook: Diurnally-driven convection will continue each day thru
the weekend and into early next week, leading to sct showers and
thunderstorms and possible restrictions each afternoon/evening.
Fog and/or low stratus may develop each morning, especially over
areas that received rain the previous day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1948     71 1976     70 2018     46 1967
                                                    1933
   KCLT     100 2012     66 1892     77 1993     57 1967
                1954                    1881
   KGSP      99 2012     70 1976     78 2016     58 1967
                                                    1933
                                                    1892

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ036-037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...GSP