589
FXUS62 KGSP 080738
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
338 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern of afternoon and evening showers and storms is
expected to continue for the first half of this week. More typical
mid-July weather is expected toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday: Little change in the upper pattern today, with
a trough axis over the central CONUS, while the western edge of
a subtropical high noses further into the Southeast. Yesterday`s
convection has effectively pushed a quasi-stationary boundary
southeast into the Midlands. Still expecting fairly widespread
stratus/stratocu across the forecast area this morning that should
take a while to scatter out and lift into a convective cu field by
early aftn. Less cloud cover in the mountains should allow typical
diurnal convection to fire, with 2000 J/kg or more of sbCAPE. Once
again, cannot rule out a severe tstm and locally heavy rainfall. The
clouds in the Piedmont will help delay destabilization, and less
convective coverage is expected than last couple days. The CAMs
generally show this, with scattered to numerous showers and storms
in the mountains, and isolated to widely scattered east. Highs
will be near normal, except slightly above normal in the Upper
Savannah Valley. Tonight will feature mostly cloudy skies with
patchy fog and slightly above normal temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Monday...Upper ridging remains strong across the
southeast region thru the period as the remnants of TC Beryl track
up the MS Valley. As the Bermuda High becomes displaced further
east, expect an increase in GOM moisture Tue while a trof arnd the
former TC builds in from the west. Afternoon instability looks
initially delayed on the profiles, yet by mid to late afternoon the
sfc trof convg shud help erode elCIN and instigate more widespread
tstm development outside the mtns, with activity possibly lingering
into the overnight hours. Still not much shear and weak mlvl LRs, so
most storms will likely remain below severe criteria. A highly moist
column will keep a chance of heavy precip possibly leading to isol
hydro concerns, however. On Wed, drier continental air will build in
from the west arnd the srn base of the sfc low, which shud shunt the
higher chance of diurnal convec east ahead of an associated sfc
trof. So, have continued to trend the highest PoPs east across the
Piedmont thru the afternoon. Still expect warm humid days with highs
in the lower to mid 90s across the non/mtns and u80s mtn valleys.
Dewpoints on Tue will reach arnd 5 degrees warmer than Wed and HI
values may rise into Advisory criteria across the Lakelands and the
Catawba river/lake basin including the Charlotte metro area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM Monday...Dry low to mid level air looks to continue to
advect in from the west Thu as a small scale sfc high nudges in
across the mtns. Believe this airmass will be enuf to limit the
convec potential during the afternoon to lower PoPs quite a bit from
the NBM likelies. Fri precip is becoming more uncertain as some
models now develop a sfc wave along the coastal bndry and bring in a
good amt of llvl Atl moisture to interact with a instu wedge bndry.
This wave is a new feature and will not change the going PoPs Fri
too much from the previous forecast. Still seeing a drying trend in
the latest guidance for the weekend and the NBM PoPs again seem too
widespread and confidently high. Still believe diurnal general tstms
are probable, yet possibly more limited to the higher terrain and
pulse mode in nature. Temps remain arnd normal and dewps lower from
the u60s, so no good signal is had for heat index issues thru the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: All TAF sites will likely be in and out of
LIFR to MVFR cigs (and possibly some fog) thru daybreak. But with
so much debris cloudiness from earlier convection, confidence is
on the low side that widespread stratus will really sock things
in. Low cigs will slowly lift/scatter out late morning, with all
sites expected to be VFR by around 18z. Not expecting as much
convection today, with typical mountain-top activity starting in
the early aftn, but only isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA
in the Piedmont mid-aftn thru early evening. As such, will go
with a TEMPO at KAVL, but PROB30 elsewhere. KCLT looks to have
the lowest chances today, and even the PROB30 looks overdone per
latest high-res guidance. Tonight, another night of lingering mid
and high clouds coupled with low-level moisture will support patchy
status and fog overnight.

Outlook: An active summertime pattern continues for most of the
week, leading to showers/thunderstorms and possible restrictions
each afternoon/evening. Fog or low stratus may develop each morning,
especially over areas that received rain the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...ARK