776
FXUS62 KGSP 010551
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions today, as well as showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a robust cold front.  Drier and cooler
conditions settle in behind the front Monday and Tuesday, before the
summer heat returns Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM Monday...Altho the actual cold front remains hung up
on the west side of the mtns, the effective front has moved off to
the southeast, taking the remaining precip with it. There remains
a small chance along the TN border near the front for another few
hours. Also won`t rule out a stray shower east of the mtns as long
as the front is still to our west, but the chances are small outside
of perhaps the southeastern fringe of metro Charlotte. Precip
probs have been adjusted accordingly. Patchy fog could be a problem
through daybreak or until the drier air starts to filter in.

Otherwise...today looks much quieter, with a return to seasonable
temps and humidity. The cold front will push well south of the area,
while a fairly dry and mild 1028 mb high will nose down from the
Great Lakes. There will probably be enough lingering moisture in
the Upper Savannah Valley and Lakelands for isolated convection,
mainly showers in the aftn. But otherwise, just some fair wx
cu. Highs mainly in the mid 80s to around 90 in the mountain
valleys and Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday: Not too much change in the short term.
Synoptically, high pressure builds in from the west with an
amplifying high over the southern CONUS. To the north, a dissipating
trough turns flow aloft NW, on Tuesday, but turns more westerly as
the upper high moves over the area. High pressure at the sfc will
slide toward the NE of the CWA by Wednesday, maintaining a stream of
drier and somewhat cooler air for the short term. Modeled upper air
guidance shows a stout subsidence aloft with a mid-level inversion
at the top of the BL, reducing rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon. Despite a few slight chance PoPs (15%-30%) mainly
concentrated over the NC mtns, there is almost no QPF response.
Another concern is the wide dewpoint depression at the surface and
at the top of the BL. With very dry air aloft, this could mix down
toward the surface, dropping RH values lower than model guidance
suggests. This would present more issues in terms of fire concerns.
Fuel moisture is dry, especially east of the mountains meaning
vegetation is more prone to ignition. Will continue to monitor.
Otherwise, temperatures look to be closer to climo and begin an
upward trend into the next period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The summertime pattern continues into the
extended. Wednesday night and into the extended period. The strong
area of high pressure continues to grow over the southeast and Mid-
Atlantic regions. Persistent height rises over the region will
create temperatures well above normal through the weekend. Guidance
from the GFS and EURO depicts moisture returning toward the end of
the week as the sfc high to the north slides off shore and winds
become more southerly. The advection of moisture does look to keep
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s by end of week. This will have a
direct impact on heat indices, especially those locations east of
the mountains. 100 plus values are possible by Thursday and into the
weekend for areas south of I-85 and eastern NC Piedmont. Will
continue to monitor, but confidence is increasing given the
persistent high pressure settling over the area. Once the high
pressure moves offshore, a return to more diurnally driven
convection is possible across the mountains, though confidence is
low. QPF response still remains low as well. As for fire concerns,
guidance does keep a stout amount of dry air aloft with a a well
mixed boundary layer. Once again, RH values have the potential to be
lower than guidance is depicting should the drier air mix down. Will
continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Prevailing VFR at all terminals through the
period, with a few caveats. As long as the sfc cold front remains
hung up on the west side of the mtns, there is the possibility
of a fog restriction developing locally. This is especially
true at KAVL and KHKY, so altho the new fcst does not include
any restrictions at this time, a restriction all the way down to
VLIFR is not out of the question at those two locations. The front
should finally slip southeast early in the day and bring the dry
air in from the NW. Wind will continue to veer around to N and
NE in response. The rest of Monday should be fair with only a few
high based stratocu. Wind will be occasionally gusty at KCLT with
some deeper mixing, courtesy of high pressure building in from
the N. Fair again tonight.

Outlook: A cold front will stall just south of the area, resulting
in quiet weather thru mid-week. A return of more typical mid-summer
diurnal convection is expected by Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM