695
FXUS62 KGSP 021755
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As dry and cooler high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight and
Wednesday, the heat wave will again become established for the
second half of the week.  Hot and humid conditions are expected over
the weekend with Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms from
Thursday through Sunday, especially over the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM: Sfc high extends from the Hudson Valley down the
East Coast. This setup will keep low humidity, subsidence, and
largely sunny conditions over our area this afternoon. While
mostly NE to ENE flow is occurring aloft over our CWA, Onshore
flow to our south is associated with widespread cloud cover south
of I-20, some of which is wrapping around into the TN Valley,
and so a few high based cumulus are advecting into our western
zones. Subsidence associated with the high and dry low levels
still suggest basically zero chance of precip today. The high will
move off the coast tonight, and low-level flow will reorient to
SE, and some low clouds are possible mainly west of I-26 toward
dawn. No fog is expected though. Near-normal temperatures and more
seasonable humidity look to return Wednesday; vertical profiles
are still subsident but more cumulus can be expected, and a few
showers can`t be ruled out over the southwest NC ridges. This
warrants a small area of 20%-ish PoPs there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday: The mid to upper level ridging across the
southeastern states will weaken over the short range period. This
will unfortunately re-orient the surface high pressure pattern,
which will shift the pleasant northeasterly flow of today around to
the southwest by Independence Day Thursday. This change in flow will
bring the higher heat and humidity back to the area. Temperatures
will be warming each day with readings in the Piedmont reaching the
mid 90s Thursday and mid to upper 90s Friday. With dewpoints climbing
back into the lower 70s in the Piedmont, heat index readings will
approach 105 on Friday afternoon and thus a Heat Advisory may be
needed particularly for the lower Piedmont and Charlotte areas.

Heat and humidity will return to the mountains also. However, this
should lead to early development of convection each day keeping
temperatures in check.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: A system in the Ohio Valley will push a
weak cold front toward the area and bring a more active convective
pattern with it on Saturday. Storms should develop in the mountains
and push into the Piedmont in the afternoon. However, conditions
will be hot and humid prior to any storm develop with heat index
values again around 105 degrees in the lower Piedmont and Charlotte
areas.

With more moisture in the area due to the front lingering across the
area, expect temperatures to be slightly less hot and there to be an
active convective pattern Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: High pressure over the NE CONUS remains
the dominant feature for the area, with associated subsidence and
low humidity likely allowing VFR to last through Wednesday. A few
high based cu or stratocu may be seen at times this afternoon
but otherwise virtually clear. Excepting KAVL, NE`ly flow will
predominate at all sites this afternoon, although apparent
lee troughing will introduce some variability to SE. Offshore
movement of the high suggests winds will trend solidly toward SE
by morning. Said movement also may replenish enough moisture for
an outside chance of cloud cover over the SC sites in the predawn
hours; this is mentioned only as a FEW layer at 025-035. Convection
suppressed again Wed so no precip mention.

Outlook: A return of more typical mid-summer humidity and diurnal
convection is expected starting on Thursday and will linger into
the weekend. Some morning restrictions could also result.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...Wimberley