741
FXUS63 KGLD 040651
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1251 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop through the mid morning hours today.

- Breezy during the day today, but winds should subside this
  evening and allow for a mild evening with temperatures in the
  60`s and generally clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1249 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the 4th of July, its looking like a fairly nice day across the
area. The forecast calls for the area to shift to the back side of
the upper troughing with high surface pressure moving in behind the
front. With drier air moving in with the front, mostly sunny skies
are expected today along with mild temperatures around the low 80`s.
The main inconvenience is the front`s passage is forecast to increase
winds out of the north during the day to around 20 mph with gusts
around 25 to 40 mph.

By this evening, the pressure gradient should weaken over the area
and help winds become mainly calm around or shortly after sunset.
Temperatures should quickly lower into the 60`s with mostly clear
skies. Will need to keep an eye out for a pop up storm off the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado with the northwesterly flow, but
the overall drier air is keeping chances around 15% or less. Even if
a storm did form, it would likely be isolated and short lived.
Overall, pretty good conditions for any fireworks.

Tomorrow, the relatively mild conditions are forecast to continue
with the upper trough still impacting the area and keeping us in
northwest flow. With drier air forecast to remain over the area,
skies should be mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the
80`s. Winds should be lighter as the higher pressure diffuses to the
northeast with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest. With the
northwest flow, will have to watch for storms again later tomorrow,
but chances remain low with the drier air in place. Even if storms
did form, they should be sub-severe and isolated to maybe
scattered.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

NW flow looks to be present across the Plains as a highly
amplified ridge develops across the western CONUS. Will be
continuing to watch for daily chances for showers and storms as
this is a pattern that is favorable for subtle waves moving
along the eastern periphery of the amplified ridge.

Slight chance to chance pops (20-40%) look to remain across the CWA
for most days with perhaps the relatively more favorable days
looking to be Saturday and Sunday as guidance is hinting at a
stronger wave within the northwest flow to impact the area. It does
appear that there may be some severe weather potential with it with
shear around 30-40 knots across the area and CAPE between 1000-1500
j/kg but is a bit to earlier to nail down exact specifics at this
time.

As for temperatures they are looking to continue to remain near
normal to below normal with highs generally in the 80s across
the area. The exception does look to be Saturday where some low
90s could sneak into the area. Temperatures do look to increase
as towards the start of the new work week as the ridge and
associated surface high start move more easterly. As this occurs
then the chances for rain will begin to diminish with it as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For KGLD, mainly VFR expected w/ the chance for MVFR ceilings
from 09Z-16Z. Southerly winds at 5-10 kts will shift to be out
of the northwest by ~09Z when ceilings should begin decreasing
due to stratus and potentially patchy fog. Northwest to
northerly winds will increase during the morning to early
afternoon with gusts of 25-30 kts possible over the terminal.
Around 00Z, winds will become more northeasterly and decrease to
5-10 kts for the remainder of the period.

For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions expected. There could be VCTS
impacting the terminal again from 09Z-14Z Thursday along with
light rain. Severe weather is not anticipated to impact the
terminal. MVFR ceilings possible due to stratus and possibly
patchy fog followed by VFR from ~14z onward. Winds, south-
southeast around 10 kts will become north-northwest by 12z,
increasing to 10-20kts with gusts around 25 kts possibly during
the afternoon hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KMK