300
FXUS63 KGLD 041115
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop through the mid morning hours today.

- Breezy during the day today, but winds should subside this
  evening and allow for a mild evening with temperatures in the
  60`s and generally clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1249 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the 4th of July, its looking like a fairly nice day across the
area. The forecast calls for the area to shift to the back side of
the upper troughing with high surface pressure moving in behind the
front. With drier air moving in with the front, mostly sunny skies
are expected today along with mild temperatures around the low 80`s.
The main inconvenience is the front`s passage is forecast to increase
winds out of the north during the day to around 20 mph with gusts
around 25 to 40 mph.

By this evening, the pressure gradient should weaken over the area
and help winds become mainly calm around or shortly after sunset.
Temperatures should quickly lower into the 60`s with mostly clear
skies. Will need to keep an eye out for a pop up storm off the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado with the northwesterly flow, but
the overall drier air is keeping chances around 15% or less. Even if
a storm did form, it would likely be isolated and short lived.
Overall, pretty good conditions for any fireworks.

Tomorrow, the relatively mild conditions are forecast to continue
with the upper trough still impacting the area and keeping us in
northwest flow. With drier air forecast to remain over the area,
skies should be mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the
80`s. Winds should be lighter as the higher pressure diffuses to the
northeast with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest. With the
northwest flow, will have to watch for storms again later tomorrow,
but chances remain low with the drier air in place. Even if storms
did form, they should be sub-severe and isolated to maybe
scattered.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Saturday...the latest NBM guidance has 20%-40% chances for
thunderstorms in the morning, prior to the arrival of a cold front
that moves through from the northwest in the afternoon with 20%-30%
pops. I`m not sure why the morning pops are so high, especially with
a lack of moisture in the 850-500mb layer and a fairly dry boundary
layer. The NAM and lesser extent ECMWF show another weather system
moving through overnight with the current forecast showing 20%-40%
chances for thunderstorms. GFS 850-500mb relative humidity is rather
low with no qpf forecast. The high temperature forecast is also
somewhat challenging. GFS/NAM 850mb temperatures support highs in
the 90s to near 100 degrees while the ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures
are about 5C to 10C cooler. For now, wont deviate from NBM forecast
highs in the 85 to 90 degree range. Low temperatures are forecast to
be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday...500mb pattern is showing an upper level trough axis moving
through within the broader pattern featuring troughing over the
northern and central plains with ridging west of the rockies. With
surface high pressure moving in, high temperatures look to be cooler
than Saturday. Just how much cooler is the question as ECMWF/GEM
850mb temperatures are in the 15C to 18C range with the GFS in the
19C to 25C range. Given the spread in guidance, will continue to
stay the course with the NBM which is forecasting highs in the
middle 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
50s. Regarding rainfall chances, we`re again advertising 20%-40%
pops in the morning and afternoon which seem to be tied to the
ECMWF/GEM models which show a little more aggressive moisture
available for thunderstorms when compared to the GFS. There`s better
agreement during the night with 20%-30% chances for thunderstorms as
weather systems move through from the northwest.

Monday...we remain under northwest flow aloft. Presently, the
forecast is dry but this flow pattern can be pesky with later model
runs showing weather systems moving through, sparking some showers
and thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower
to middle 80s, a good compromise when compared to a blend of
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures. Low temperatures are forecast to
be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday...presently, the afternoon hours are forecast to be dry.
However, there is a fair signal that a weather system moves in
during the afternoon per 700-500mb relative humidity. This would
support increasing pops to at least slight chance territory. Any
afternoon thunderstorms will move to the east/southeast overnight
which is handled fairly by the NBM with 20% pops. High temperatures
are currently forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s, close
to typical mixing from the warmer GFS/GEM models. ECMWF 850mb
temperatures are about 5C to 7C cooler. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday...no change in the blocking 500mb pattern when compared to
the past several days. High pressure ridge remains anchored west of
the rockies with troughing east of the Mississippi River. There may
be some afternoon and overnight showers and thunderstorms but for
now those chances dont look higher than 20%. High temperatures
remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the
middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... Fog and low stratus are possible for the
first few hours of the TAF period. Similar to prior nights, the
low levels remain relatively saturated, but cloud cover and
nearby storm outflows continue to cause conditions to fluctuate.
Based on upstream obs of relatively clear skies behind the
front, have opted to put KMCK with clear skies while KGLD has
IFR to near IFR ceilings. Both terminals should be cautious
through 14-15Z. After that VFR conditions with strong northerly
winds is forecast through the daytime hours. Winds should then
become light around or just after sunset.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KAK