934
FXUS63 KGLD 031815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1215 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening. However, if
  storms/cloud cover are present through the morning and early
  afternoon hours, storm and severe chances will be very low.
  Otherwise, the storms later today will be capable of producing
  hail up to 3 inches, wind gusts to 80 mph, and a tornado or
  two. Be sure to look for updates this afternoon.

- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; normal to below normal
  temperatures into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Another night, another round of storms moving/developing in the
area. Radar continues to show storms trying to develop and move into
the area generally south of I-70. Given the moisture advecting into
the area and the general east/northeast movement, am expecting these
storms to move through the area in a few clusters through the
morning. The storms and additional cloud cover should help mitigate
fog chances, though prior nights suggest that some patchy fog may
still be able to form in this moist low level air mass.

Today will largely be dictated by whether cloud/storms are present
through the day or not. Areas that remain cloud cover or see storms
through the morning will be more likely to only warm to around 80,
while the rest of the area would warm into the mid to upper 80s.
Currently, Northwest Kansas is favored to be cloud covered with
counties near the Colorado border more likely to clear. Should
storms be present through the morning, severe weather looks to be
unlikely with CAPE generally less than 1000 J/KG and cloud cover
inhibiting the development of more instability. Maybe could see a
severe wind gust with a stronger storm, but the lack of DCAPE and
winds remaining generally below 50 kts will keep the chance very
low.

For this afternoon, still looking at a shortwave trough moving
through the Western Rockies and Northern Plains with a deepening low
pressure near the Front Range. This will provide more than adequate
forcing for storms to develop, especially along the Palmer Divide.
The complicating factor is how long cloud cover and storms will
linger through the morning and early afternoon. If storms and cloud
cover linger through much of the day, this afternoons storms could
be limited in coverage and intensity, if they even form at all.

If the storms and cloud cover break during the early afternoon
hours, then the area will have a decent chance for a few cluster of
storms to develop and move through parts of the area. In this
scenario, higher instability (CAPE 2000 J/KG, Mid Lapse Rates 8C+)
and high effective shear (45-60 kts) could allow for some initial
supercell development. This would favor Eastern Colorado and give
the highest chance for large hail today, potentially up to 3 inches
in size. A tornado may also be possible, though low level shear and
SRH continues to be forecast to be low. As storms progressed east,
clusters and lines would become more likely and increase the wind
threat. With DCAPE greater than 1000 J/KG, downshear vectors around
50-65 kts, and mid to high cloud winds around 50-70 kts, damaging
wind gusts to 80 mph are possible, especially in a linear mode.
Large hail and maybe a QLCS tornado would also be possible, but wind
would be the main threat at that point.

In summary, there is a chance for strong severe storms this
afternoon and evening (likely between 3-9pm MT). All hazards are
possible, though wind is the main threat, followed by hail. If this
morning`s storms and/or cloud cover persist, the risk for storms and
severe storms will lower considerably.

Tonight, skies are forecast to initially clear from any
afternoon/evening storms. However, another round of storms is
possible as the trough swings through and the surface low/front push
through the area. Storms would likely be sub-severe, but there could
be enough instability and DCAPE for an instance or two of large hail
or wind gusts to 65 mph. Lows are forecast to drop to 50`s for the
western half of the area, but 60`s for the eastern half of the area
where the second round of storms is possible.

For the 4th of July, a relatively mild day is forecast with highs in
the 80`s and skies becoming mostly sunny as drier air works into the
area behind the front. The main inconvenience will be the presence of
stronger winds from the north with speeds around 20 mph and gusts up
to 40 mph. For the evening hours, winds are forecast to begin
tapering off as the sun sets. Skies should remain clear short of a
low potential for some storms to develop over the higher terrain in
Eastern Colorado. Chances are only 15% and even then would likely be
limited to an isolated storm or two that dissipates fairly quickly.
The overnight hours would see temperatures drop into the 50`s with
lighter winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

NW flow looks to be present across the Plains as a highly
amplified ridge develops across the western CONUS. Will be
continuing to watch for daily chances for showers and storms as
this is a pattern that is favorable for subtle waves moving
along the eastern periphery of the amplified ridge.

Slight chance to chance pops (20-40%) look to remain across the CWA
for most days with perhaps the relatively more favorable days
looking to be Saturday and Sunday as guidance is hinting at a
stronger wave within the northwest flow to impact the area. It does
appear that there may be some severe weather potential with it with
shear around 30-40 knots across the area and CAPE between 1000-1500
j/kg but is a bit to earlier to nail down exact specifics at this
time.

As for temperatures they are looking to continue to remain near
normal to below normal with highs generally in the 80s across
the area. The exception does look to be Saturday where some low
90s could sneak into the area. Temperatures do look to increase
as towards the start of the new work week as the ridge and
associated surface high start move more easterly. As this occurs
then the chances for rain will begin to diminish with it as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 955 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For KGLD, concerns for the forecast period will be the potential
for thunderstorms. Currently, VFR conditions are expected, with
VCTS potential from 23z-03z due to low confidence on timing.
Some -SHRA possible from 03z-12z Thursday. Winds, south-
southeast 15-25kts through 03z, then diminishing to 10kts. By
12z, northwest 15-25kts.

For KMCK, concerns for the forecast period will be the
potential for thunderstorms. Currently, VFR conditions are
expected for much of the forecast period. MVFR ceilings around
11z-14z. VCTS in from 00z-04z due to low confidence on timing.
04z-11z could have 6sm in light showers impact the terminal.
Winds, south-southeast 15-25kts through 04z Thursday, then
5-10kts. by 11z, northwest 10-20kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN