376
FXUS63 KGLD 091111
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week
  at least with the main threat of damaging winds.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
  90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Northwest flow continues over the plains around a ridge centered
over the Four Corners. CAMs continue to be highly variable in
this pattern with significant run-to-run differences due to
mesoscale features driving the convection. General thinking for
today is that afternoon storms may develop along remnant outflow
boundaries, with low confidence on where/when/and even if that
will happen. Better chances and somewhat higher confidence in a
complex developing in the Nebraska panhandle associated with an
upper wave and then moving southeast this evening, impacting
areas east of Highway 25. Afternoon storms, if they develop,
will have up to 1500 j/kg of SBCAPE to work with and 30-35kts of
deep layer shear, so could produce large hail and damaging
winds. Evening storms will have less instability but slightly
more shear at 35-40kts and be mainly a wind threat. Storms
should end relatively early at around 06z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Tonight through the overnight hours, weak ridging is still in
place over the region. Isolated to scattered storms are expected
to move through the area this afternoon and evening, mainly from
around 23z through 05z and the CAMs and short range models are
in pretty good agreement on this timing. These storms are
expected to fire up east of the Front Range in eastern Colorado
and progress through toward our area. There is still a decent
amount of model uncertainty regarding the severity of these
storms. Generally, the CAMs and short range models for both 06z
and 12z runs this morning showed the storms at their strongest
just west of us and in our westernmost areas before weakening as
it moves across the area. Shear looks to be a little more
limited/conditional today, despite favorable CAPE and moisture. The
environment however is still favorable for severe storms,
especially in westernmost areas, but they will be a bit more
isolated in coverage than previous nights. The main threat will
be damaging winds 60-75mph, but large hail will be possible as
well. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather to
reflect this risk as well. These storms should be fairly
progressive, so the flash flood concern is very minimal, and we
are not outlooked by WPC for a flooding risk. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Looking at the long term forecast, weak ridging will persist
through the area tomorrow (Wednesday) and generally be a bit
stronger Wednesday. There will be an isolated chance of storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The chances of these storms
occurring is low (PoPs around 10-20% or less), but if they
occur, the best location to see these storms will be in the
northeasternmost areas. These storms will have the potential for
subsevere to severe gusty winds (50-60mph) primarily, but there
will be a risk for large hail as well if they occur. Reflecting
this risk, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Weather for just our northeastern areas.

Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving near the
area, enhancing the chances for rain and severe storms again,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. There is still
some model uncertainty regarding where the storms will begin to
fire up and how strong they will be. But the globals are in
decent agreement that around 18-21z, storms will begin to fire
up east of the Front Range and progress through our area
throughout the evening, especially as we get toward 00z through
06z. The best timing to see severe weather at least looking at
the trends will be between 21z and 03z. We are outlooked in a
Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Thursday, but would not be
surprised if the Slight Risk off to our east gets expanded into
our area in the next 1-2 days. Regardless, severe weather will
be favorable for this system with all modes of severe weather
possible at this time. Additionally, as these storms move
through, they could slow down a little, which could cause some
minor flash flooding issues due to the efficient rainfall. We
are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Heavy Rainfall to reflect
this potential. There is still quite a bit of model
uncertainty, and things could change depending on how things
progress over the next 1-2 days. We will keep monitoring for
changes.

Friday through the weekend forecast still has quite a bit of
uncertainty since it depends on how these systems progress first
over the next few days. But generally, there will be the chance
for storms daily during the afternoon and evening hours with the
potential for a few of these storms to be severe. We will keep
monitoring for changes to determine further details on the
severity and mode of these storms. MSW

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon with a low probability of impacting
either terminal. Slightly better chances this evening at KMCK
where have included a PROB30 for this evening. Gusty surface
winds will accompany any thunderstorm.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...024