651
FXUS63 KGLD 050715
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday on into the upcoming
  weekend.

- There will be scattered chances for storms next week for a
  few days, especially during the latter portion of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny as a
strong surface ridge is currently stretched over the area. Temps as
of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds are
continuing from a northerly direction w/ gusts into the 25-30 mph
range through the day.

Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on thunderstorm
chances around the area. Currently, the area lies under NW flow
aloft with an amplified 500 mb ridge set up over the western portion
of the country.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, high pressure will
remain intact for much of the CWA, providing a nice cool and dry
period. CAMs do hint at a 15-20% chance for a few rw/trw to develop
over northeast Colorado, dissipating by Friday morning. A weak
500/700mb shortwave will create some weak instability giving some
elevated shower potential, but nothing of any impact.

The latest GFS/NAM do differ from Friday onward in terms of areal
coverage of precip. The focus will be a developing low/trough over
eastern Colorado Friday afternoon. This system will meander into the
CWA Friday night into Saturday. This system will drift over the
southern CWA and eventually redevelop west again by Sunday. This
will allow for at least 20-50% chances for rw/trw. Highest probs
will have the eastern CWA in the zone. The ample low level moisture
on S/SE flow this weekend will aid in trw chances. Instability on
Saturday afternoon/evening from the latest model soundings has DCape
around 1300-1400j/kg, MLCape around 1500-1600j/kg and SBCape 2300-
2400j/kg. This is from the latest NAM run around 18z Saturday-00z
Sunday. As a result, SPC carries a Marginal Risk for severe on
Saturday for the CWA. Similar chances occur for Sunday, but no
outlook at this time.

For temps, highs on Friday will range in the lower to mid 80s. Going
into this weekend, Saturday will have a range from the mid 80s into
the lower 90s, followed by a cooler day on Sunday with upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Overnight lows for tonight will range in the 50s, with warmest
locales east of Highway 25. Slightly warmer Friday and Saturday
nights with mid 50s west to around 60F in eastern locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The forecast area will remain under northwest flow aloft
through the period, in between an upper level ridge which begins
the period over California, slowly migrating east over the
intermountain west through Thursday. An upper level trough that
will be impacting our weather Sunday slowly moves east as the
ridge approaches.

High temperatures Sunday will be below normal in the 75 to 80 degree
range with generally 80 to 85 Monday. For the period Tuesday through
Thursday, high temperatures rise to around 90 degrees plus or minus
a few degrees based on NBM guidance and a blend of GFS/ECMWF/GEM
850mb temperatures. If the warmer GFS/GEM 850mb temperatures verify,
we could see highs closer to 95 degrees. Low temperatures will be
generally in the 50s Sunday night and Monday night with middle 50s
to lower 60s Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

Regarding rainfall chances, this mornings guidance is showing 20%-
60% chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning as
plentiful moisture below 700mb slides southeast across the
area. There may be a break, greater than currently forecast, in
the afternoon until another weather system per 700-500mb
relative humidity approaches far eastern Colorado from the
northwest. This system moves south-southeast during the night,
supporting 20%-40% pops, mainly across the southwest 1/2 of the
area. Monday remains generally dry across the area. On Tuesday,
there is a 20% chance for thunderstorms around Flagler,
expanding east across the remainder of the forecast area during
the night. Slight chance (20%) pops continue during the typical
afternoon-overnight hours Wednesday as weak weather systems move
through from the northwest. Dry weather is currently forecast
on Thursday which seems reasonable at the moment given a lack of
appreciable moisture in the 850-500mb layer from the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM models.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Both terminals (KGLD/KMCK) will see VFR conditions through the
forecast periods. Winds will shift variably from the northeast
to the northwest from through 12z for both terminals. After
12Z, winds should remain light out of the northwest for the
remainder of the period. Latest guidance suggests some shower
and sub-severe storm development from issuance to 22Z Friday
afternoon. Should these develop, it would primarily impact the
KMCK terminal. AMDs will be made as needed should current
coverage increase.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KMK