615
FXUS63 KGLD 051118
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are possible through the day today, severe
  storms are not expected at this time.

- Severe weather chances return for the weekend. Tomorrow could
  see severe storms develop with all hazards possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Current observations show the area remains in northwest flow aloft
with a few showers and storms trying to get going in Eastern
Colorado. These showers and storms will be the main focus as the
northwest flow allows a small wave to move through while mid levels
are forecast to be saturated or nearly saturated. As long as some
forcing moves through, showers and storms are forecast to become a
bit higher in coverage and track across the area. Rainfall amounts
would likely be below a tenth with relatively dry air near the
surface and no signs of large scale forcing to help make storms
stronger. Instabilty is also forecast to be weak with little CAPE,
but mid level lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM. As long as the showers and
storms develop, the area will then see a mix of clouds and sun with
showers and storms also mixed in. With this and the relatively
cooler air mass still in place, highs should climb to near 80 today.
If the storms and cloud cover die out early in the morning, then
temperatures may be a few degrees warmer than forecast.

Tonight, the mid-level saturation is forecast to dry out which
should allow skies to clear and keep the area clear of storms, even
with continued northwest flow. Lows are forecast to drop into the
50`s.

Tomorrow, a shortwave within the larger trough is forecast to swing
through the Northern Plains with low pressure developing along the
Front Range and western half of the area. The usual question is will
our flow predominately be from the south or southwest? The more the
flow is from the southwest, the less of the area that will see storm
chances and the farther east the dryline will be. For any area along
and ahead of the dryline, storms are forecast to fire up along the
dryline and surface convergence areas associated with the warm
front. Similar to prior events like this, any initial storms along
either boundary would have the capability to produce large hail
(potentially to around 2 inches) and a tornado. As the afternoon
goes on, storms would likely cluster and move east, becoming more of
a wind threat. Currently NW Kansas and SW Nebraska are the favored
areas to be ahead of the dryline, but this could shift during the
next 24 hours. In regards to high temperatures, the southerly flow
is forecast to bring in warmer air and allow temperatures to warm
into mid 80`s through the lower 90`s.

Tomorrow night, storms may continue through the night depending on
how much dry air moved in during the day. If more moist air remains
over the area, the low and front are forecast to not move too
quickly to the south, which would allow additional storms to
develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The forecast area will remain under northwest flow aloft
through the period, in between an upper level ridge which begins
the period over California, slowly migrating east over the
intermountain west through Thursday. An upper level trough that
will be impacting our weather Sunday slowly moves east as the
ridge approaches.

High temperatures Sunday will be below normal in the 75 to 80 degree
range with generally 80 to 85 Monday. For the period Tuesday through
Thursday, high temperatures rise to around 90 degrees plus or minus
a few degrees based on NBM guidance and a blend of GFS/ECMWF/GEM
850mb temperatures. If the warmer GFS/GEM 850mb temperatures verify,
we could see highs closer to 95 degrees. Low temperatures will be
generally in the 50s Sunday night and Monday night with middle 50s
to lower 60s Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

Regarding rainfall chances, this mornings guidance is showing 20%-
60% chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning as
plentiful moisture below 700mb slides southeast across the
area. There may be a break, greater than currently forecast, in
the afternoon until another weather system per 700-500mb
relative humidity approaches far eastern Colorado from the
northwest. This system moves south-southeast during the night,
supporting 20%-40% pops, mainly across the southwest 1/2 of the
area. Monday remains generally dry across the area. On Tuesday,
there is a 20% chance for thunderstorms around Flagler,
expanding east across the remainder of the forecast area during
the night. Slight chance (20%) pops continue during the typical
afternoon-overnight hours Wednesday as weak weather systems move
through from the northwest. Dry weather is currently forecast
on Thursday which seems reasonable at the moment given a lack of
appreciable moisture in the 850-500mb layer from the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM models.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. The only concern is the potential for showers and storms
to move through, mainly during the morning hours. KMCK is
currently on the north side of the band which would favor
occasional showers moving through. KGLD is currently south of
the band, but could see storms develop as the band shifts south
and through the terminal. Current forecast is for the
precipitation chances to end around 18-21Z, with mostly clear
skies and relatively light winds for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KAK