232
FXUS63 KGLD 110505
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1105 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week
  and into Saturday with the main threat of damaging winds.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
  90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A downward storm trend is expected. Instability waning with the
setting sun, storms already exhibiting a weakening trend that
along with are still producing wind gusts around 50 mph along
with blowing dust impacts with visibility getting as low as a
quarter mile. A majority of these impacts have moved out of our
area into Scott County, KS. But an eye on thunderstorms moving
into Yuma County, CO that too around producing 50 mph winds.

The possibility that thunderstorms will become elevated, low
level winds contributing, outflow boundaries from storms that
are presently dying lingering, there is the potential for some
additional storm development as the mid-level H5 trof axis and
attendant energy sweeps across the region behind which both
subsidence and limiting lapse rates should put storm development
to bed late. Looking at things going towards midnight and then
becoming quiet thereafter. Clearing out and lows getting down to
around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A shortwave system will be moving through the area beginning
around 21z in our westernmost areas and then progressing
eastward. Generally, this system looks fairly progressive so it
should be out of our area by 06z if not earlier. Recent model
trends have been weakening this system as it moves through our
area. Regardless, the environment is still decently favorable to
see severe weather. The biggest limiting factor will be the
lack of shear with this event. If we get enough instability this
can be overcome, however, the instability is looking fairly
lacking overall today, especially given the higher cloud cover
than expected this morning. The locations with the best chance
of seeing severe storms as this system moves through will be our
westernmost areas, but it will be possible across our entire
area. Given the high DCAPE among other variables, the damaging
wind threat will be the biggest concern tonight with winds
60-75mph possible. We are outlooked in a Slight Risk of Severe
Weather by SPC to reflect this threat. The main timing for these
storms to be moving through will be starting around 3pm MT for
the westernmost areas and getting to our Kansas counties by
around 6pm MT. The whole thing should be through our area by
midnight MT.

As this system will be fairly progressive overall, the flash
flooding threat will be quite minimal, and we are not outlooked
by WPC for a concern of heavy rainfall. One other thing that we
wanted to mention is that there has been some concern for
blowing dust with the outflow boundaries tonight if these storms
cold pool quickly, mainly since the soil was able to get quite
dry yesterday from the higher temperatures. While the concern is
a bit lesser now given the cooler temperatures today,
visibilities may be slightly reduced near thunderstorms as a
result, so we wanted to make sure to mention it.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Friday, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern until a
trough moves through the area overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. Generally, scattered to numerous storms are expected.
Confidence on this has been increasing looking at the recent
model trends, but there is still some uncertainty in the short
range models. The environment looks favorable enough for these
storms to be strong to severe. The biggest limiting factor right
now appears to be the lack of shear, but it is enough/decent.
The main threat will be damaging winds (60-70mph) and a
secondary lower threat of large hail. SPC has outlooked our
entire area in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather to highlight
this concern. The main timing for this storm development will be
during evening hours predominantly. These storms will have the
potential for some slow movement or training so there is a
concern for minor flash flooding as a result. We are outlooked
in a Marginal Risk for Heavy Rainfall by WPC to highlight this
risk.

Once this system moves through early Saturday morning, upper
level ridging begins to build over the area. As a result,
conditions will be fairly dry overall Saturday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures will be fairly mild with highs in the low
to mid 90s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a fairly robust system is
expected to move through the area. There is still a lot of
uncertainty in the severity and timing of this system. Right
now, the system may not line up with the best forcing/lifting.
But a lot will depend on how things develop over the next week.
Regardless, based on the initial modes, all modes of severe
weather could be possible. This system will be something to
watch, and we will be monitoring it as we get closer to the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... Storms are dissipating and should end within
the first hour or two of the period. With that VFR conditions
and winds slowly shifting to be more out of the north area
forecast for the first 6 hours. VFR conditions are expected to
continue through most of the day with mostly clear skies. Winds
could vary a bit between north and east, generally around 10-15
kts. Late in the TAF period around 02-06Z, storms are forecast
to move through the area again. They could be severe with gusts
above 50 kts along with some hail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...KAK