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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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451 FXUS63 KGLD 040453 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1053 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog may develop tonight through sunrise. - Breezy 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire on time. A line of thunderstorms continues across the far eastern portion of the CWA. A rogue gust of 50-60 mph is still possible but the threat has lessened considerably allowing for the expiration of the watch. Will need to watch for fog formation overnight as the RAP continues to show a saturated surface layer along with light and variable winds occurring. If fog were to develop it appears it would be most favorable along and east of a Wray to Gove City line. Locally dense fog may be possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as lingering/increasing cumulus remains from this morning, and has been slowly increasing this afternoon. Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s with a persistent southerly flow area-wide, with gusts up to 30 mph at times. The main wx concerns for the short term period will be the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Currently there are a couple weak persistent boundaries along/north of Highway 36, and a large front/trough over northeast Colorado just west of Yuma and Kit Carson counties. The latest CAMs are showing the front to the west to be the main initiator of rw/trw. Both the HRRR and NamNest are showing a broken line of storms developing/approaching the western CWA boundary around 22z, potentially in 2-3 segments to start. These clusters of storms will then push through the CWA and possibly forming into one line around Highway 27 then push E/SE through the remainder of the area. 40-60% chance of precip during the peak times through 03z. The latest SPC Meso Analysis is showing 1500-3000j/kg of SBCape already spread out over the CWA after main cloud cover dissipated west to east by midday. DCape from Highway 27 west is ranging from 1000-1500j/kg with the highest numbers closest to the front previously mentioned. Bulk effective shear is 30-40 knots from the W/NW. Low level lapse rates are increasing into the 8-9C/km over portions of the CWA, while mid level numbers are highest near the front off west around 8-9C/km, but are slowly increasing east towards our area. With this, will be looking for all hazards possible for the region through this evening. SPC still carries a Slight Risk for severe over us with hatched hail/wind threats. Could see the wind more as storms move east into Kansas, but hail could be the initial threat. The difference between today and past few days is the lower levels are not as dry, making hail more possible. Enhanced Stretching parameter around 6 is now over the CWA, and with CAMs showing a potential bowing structure in KS after 00z Thursday, potential for QLCS tornadoes spin ups does exist. High PW values from 1-1.2" west increase to 1.3-1.6" in the east, making locally heavy rainfall a possibility. WPC carries a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall as a result. Looking for precip to taper from west to east between 00z-06z, with some lingering scattered rw/trw in the east before exiting. Thursday and Thursday night looks to remain mostly dry. There is a low chance(15-20%) for a rw/trw in the far SW due to a weak shortwave passage. For temps, looking for highs on Thursday to range in the upper 70s into the mid 80s. Overnight lows for tonight will range in the mid 50s west into the mid 60s east. For Thursday night, in the 50s area- wide with warmest locales east of Highway 25. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 NW flow looks to be present across the Plains as a highly amplified ridge develops across the western CONUS. Will be continuing to watch for daily chances for showers and storms as this is a pattern that is favorable for subtle waves moving along the eastern periphery of the amplified ridge. Slight chance to chance pops (20-40%) look to remain across the CWA for most days with perhaps the relatively more favorable days looking to be Saturday and Sunday as guidance is hinting at a stronger wave within the northwest flow to impact the area. It does appear that there may be some severe weather potential with it with shear around 30-40 knots across the area and CAPE between 1000-1500 j/kg but is a bit to earlier to nail down exact specifics at this time. As for temperatures they are looking to continue to remain near normal to below normal with highs generally in the 80s across the area. The exception does look to be Saturday where some low 90s could sneak into the area. Temperatures do look to increase as towards the start of the new work week as the ridge and associated surface high start move more easterly. As this occurs then the chances for rain will begin to diminish with it as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 For KGLD, mainly VFR expected w/ the chance for MVFR ceilings from 09Z-16Z. Southerly winds at 5-10 kts will shift to be out of the northwest by ~09Z when ceilings should begin decreasing due to stratus and potentially patchy fog. Northwest to northerly winds will increase during the morning to early afternoon with gusts of 25-30 kts possible over the terminal. Around 00Z, winds will become more northeasterly and decrease to 5-10 kts for the remainder of the period. For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions expected. There could be VCTS impacting the terminal again from 09Z-14Z Thursday along with light rain. Severe weather is not anticipated to impact the terminal. MVFR ceilings possible due to stratus and possibly patchy fog followed by VFR from ~14z onward. Winds, south- southeast around 10 kts will become north-northwest by 12z, increasing to 10-20kts with gusts around 25 kts possibly during the afternoon hours. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...KMK