631
FXUS65 KGJT 040001
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
601 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through the weekend with temperatures
  increasing.

- Light disturbances rippling over the top of the high pressure
  ridge could bring some scattered clouds and maybe a shower to
  the Divide over the coming days.

- Potential for monsoon moisture`s return is likely not until
  sometime early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An upper level trough working through the Intermountain West this
afternoon with a respectable jet streak digging through its base is
bringing some gusty winds to the region. Localized critical fire
weather conditions are possible this afternoon, but will quickly
diminish with the winds and recovering humidities early this
evening. A few showers and thunderstorms have taken advantage of
some very targeted moisture and a shortwave ripple down in the
San Juans this afternoon. Again, this activity will be short
lived as we approach the early evening hours. Overnight lows
tonight will remain pleasant in the lower dewpoints.
Independence Day will look very similar to today with winds
backing off behind today`s trough. The high pressure ridge over
the West continues to amplify tomorrow, effectively blocking any
moisture intrusion. This should keep a dry forecast on the
books for Fourth of July festivities around the region. A few
scattered clouds on the mountains along the Divide are possible
and maybe a stray shower, but dry surface conditions are
expected to keep any moisture from reaching the surface. Once
again, lower dewpoints around the region will allow temperatures
at sunset to dip efficiently. If taking in area fireworks, one
might take along a light jacket.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

By Friday the ridge is well established over the West Coast, which
means that dry northwest flow persists for our area. It will
gradually nudge eastward over the weekend causing temperatures to
get slightly warmer each day. The uncertainty in this pattern is the
shortwaves that drop down from western Canada. This could occur
several times during the forecast period, but their track and
strength is tough to determine days out. These systems can keep the
ridge parked over the West Coast, bring cooler air masses into the
region and in some cases allow moisture to sneak in from the return
flow. If the moisture reaches past the Front Range isolated showers
are possible along the Divide. Despite the low chances for moisture
most locations will remain dry through early next week. There are
signs that mid next week the high drifts eastward, but at the same
time the monsoon moisture returns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected with dry conditions through the
period. Gusty winds with gusts 25 to 35 mph should subside by
sunset with lighter terrain driven winds overnight and on
Thursday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...MDA