188
FXUS65 KGJT 051150
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
550 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warm and occasionally breezy weather continues through the
  weekend.

- This regime will bring the return of near critical fire
  weather conditions across northern portions of Colorado and
  Utah. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday for
  zones where fuels are critical.

- Monsoon moisture may return to the region towards the end of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Benign weather prevails through the short term period as high
pressure continues to engulf the western CONUS. This will see dry
northwest flow persist aloft across western Colorado and eastern
Utah while the ridge axis extends north into Canada. Farther east,
broad troughing will dominate the central U.S. with the jet rounding
its base settling over our northern zones. Similar to previous days,
this will translate to occasionally breezy conditions with gusts of
20 to 25 mph this afternoon. The jet will strengthen and drop
slightly farther south on Saturday with surface gusts increasing to
30 to 35 mph across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Given
these stronger winds and as humidities drop into the upper single
digits to low teens, critical fire weather conditions are expected.
Therefore, went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday
afternoon and early evening for zones where fuels have been declared
critical. Temperatures both today and Saturday will trend near to
slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Warm and dry conditions persist through the weekend as high
pressure continues to build in. Broad northwesterly flow will
also keep moisture confined to areas to our south. Models
highlight a shortwave dropping down from areas north to the
Front Range on Sunday with portions of the Continental Divide
seeing some showery activity. Little change with that solution
so look for a passing shower and/or storm Sunday afternoon/evening
and again on Monday. Tuesday onwards, hints of a return to
monsoonal flow can be seen by subtropical moisture starting to
push northward. Forecast PWATs are progged to start increasing
across Arizona and New Mexico midweek onwards. Some discrepancy
remains when this increase in moisture will reach our area but
it certainly looks possible towards the end of the week.
Temperatures through the period will remain near normal through
Monday before jumping to around 5 degrees above, Tuesday
onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Plenty of sunny skies on tap today. VFR conditions will be the
rule with some afternoon gusts expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

High pressure remains in place through the weekend resulting in warm
and dry weather. Occasionally breezy conditions are expected each
day with northeast Utah and northwest Colorado seeing the strongest
winds on Saturday. Given the low relative humidities, went ahead and
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon and early evening
for fire weather zones 200, 485, 486, and 487. Elsewhere elevated
fire conditions will be more localized or fuels are not considered
critical.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for COZ200.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for UTZ485>487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MMS