Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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782 FXUS65 KGJT 041143 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 543 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue through the weekend with temperatures increasing. - Light disturbances rippling over the top of the high pressure ridge could bring passing clouds and occasionally breezy conditions over the coming days. - Monsoon moisture doesn`t look to return to the region until early to mid next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 228 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Quiet weather is expected for this Independence Day as high pressure continues to build off the West Coast while dry northwest flow prevails overhead. Plenty of dry air evident on satellite this afternoon as PWATs drop back to well below normal for early July. A large trough of low pressure continues to dig into the Plains today with the jet rounding its base lingering across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. This will bring not only some passing midlevel clouds this afternoon but also occasionally breezy conditions with gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected. When combined with continued minimum humidities in the single digits to low teens, localized near critical fire weather conditions are possible. Coverage is spotty at best so have opted not to issue any Red Flag Warnings today. Still, please use caution with any fireworks, campfires, grills, or anything of the like on this holiday. Winds diminish tonight with benign weather persisting through Friday as the ridge amplifies north towards the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures will gradually warm through the short term period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 228 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure centered just off northern California will be affecting our weather through the entire long term period. Northwesterly flow around the high will keep any moisture from moving into the CWA...keeping it way down south in New Mexico. This high pressure will slowly move south and east each day as small waves ride around the edges. Deterministic models are suggesting a very low chance that a few showers may fire along the Divide as these wiggles brush against our area. The NBM is highlighting this possibility though chances are only in the 15 to 25% range. By Wednesday, the center of high pressure will have reached central Utah. Despite high pressure being overhead, we can still expect some breezy afternoon winds of around 25 mph at times thanks to deeper mixing. As far as temperatures are concerned, we`ll stay warm through the period and as the high gets closer, we`ll start seeing highs get close to 10 degrees above climatological normals. All in all, a quiet and tranquil period of weather coming up. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 541 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions will remain in place with mostly sunny skies expected. A few afternoon gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMS LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT