Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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575 FXUS65 KGJT 050934 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 334 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry, warm and occasionally breezy weather continues through the weekend. - This regime will bring the return of near critical fire weather conditions across northern portions of Colorado and Utah. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday for zones where fuels are critical. - Monsoon moisture may return to the region towards the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Benign weather prevails through the short term period as high pressure continues to engulf the western CONUS. This will see dry northwest flow persist aloft across western Colorado and eastern Utah while the ridge axis extends north into Canada. Farther east, broad troughing will dominate the central U.S. with the jet rounding its base settling over our northern zones. Similar to previous days, this will translate to occasionally breezy conditions with gusts of 20 to 25 mph this afternoon. The jet will strengthen and drop slightly farther south on Saturday with surface gusts increasing to 30 to 35 mph across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Given these stronger winds and as humidities drop into the upper single digits to low teens, critical fire weather conditions are expected. Therefore, went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon and early evening for zones where fuels have been declared critical. Temperatures both today and Saturday will trend near to slightly above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Warm and dry conditions persist through the weekend as high pressure continues to build in. Broad northwesterly flow will also keep moisture confined to areas to our south. Models highlight a shortwave dropping down from areas north to the Front Range on Sunday with portions of the Continental Divide seeing some showery activity. Little change with that solution so look for a passing shower and/or storm Sunday afternoon/evening and again on Monday. Tuesday onwards, hints of a return to monsoonal flow can be seen by subtropical moisture starting to push northward. Forecast PWATs are progged to start increasing across Arizona and New Mexico midweek onwards. Some discrepancy remains when this increase in moisture will reach our area but it certainly looks possible towards the end of the week. Temperatures through the period will remain near normal through Monday before jumping to around 5 degrees above, Tuesday onwards. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with mostly sunny skies expected. A few afternoon gusts of 20 kts are possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 High pressure remains in place through the weekend resulting in warm and dry weather. Occasionally breezy conditions are expected each day with northeast Utah and northwest Colorado seeing the strongest winds on Saturday. Given the low relative humidities, went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon and early evening for fire weather zones 200, 485, 486, and 487. Elsewhere elevated fire conditions will be more localized or fuels are not considered critical. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ200. UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for UTZ485>487. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMS LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...MMS