602
FXUS65 KGJT 040828
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
228 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through the weekend with temperatures
  increasing.

- Light disturbances rippling over the top of the high pressure
  ridge could bring passing clouds and occasionally breezy
  conditions over the coming days.

- Monsoon moisture doesn`t look to return to the region until
  early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Quiet weather is expected for this Independence Day as high
pressure continues to build off the West Coast while dry
northwest flow prevails overhead. Plenty of dry air evident on
satellite this afternoon as PWATs drop back to well below
normal for early July. A large trough of low pressure continues
to dig into the Plains today with the jet rounding its base
lingering across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. This
will bring not only some passing midlevel clouds this afternoon
but also occasionally breezy conditions with gusts of 20 to 30
mph expected. When combined with continued minimum humidities in
the single digits to low teens, localized near critical fire
weather conditions are possible. Coverage is spotty at best so
have opted not to issue any Red Flag Warnings today. Still,
please use caution with any fireworks, campfires, grills, or
anything of the like on this holiday. Winds diminish tonight
with benign weather persisting through Friday as the ridge
amplifies north towards the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure centered just off northern California will be
affecting our weather through the entire long term period.
Northwesterly flow around the high will keep any moisture from
moving into the CWA...keeping it way down south in New Mexico. This
high pressure will slowly move south and east each day as small
waves ride around the edges. Deterministic models are suggesting a
very low chance that a few showers may fire along the Divide as
these wiggles brush against our area. The NBM is highlighting this
possibility though chances are only in the 15 to 25% range. By
Wednesday, the center of high pressure will have reached central
Utah. Despite high pressure being overhead, we can still expect some
breezy afternoon winds of around 25 mph at times thanks to deeper
mixing. As far as temperatures are concerned, we`ll stay warm
through the period and as the high gets closer, we`ll start seeing
highs get close to 10 degrees above climatological normals. All in
all, a quiet and tranquil period of weather coming up.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will remain in place with mostly sunny skies
expected. A few afternoon gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT