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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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964 FXUS65 KGJT 031118 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 518 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon while high pressure dominates else- where. - This drier regime brings the return of near critical fire weather conditions across northern portions of Colorado and Utah today. However, coverage remains localized so the Fire Weather Watch has been cancelled. - Dry and warm conditions persist through the Holiday weekend and likely into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Dry air continues to infiltrate the Western Slope in earnest, as noted on the 00Z GJT sounding which had a precipitable water of 0.36 inches...significantly less than the 1.12 inches just 24 hours prior! This shift is thanks to the prominent northwest flow dominating eastern Utah and western Colorado aloft, as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Pacific Ocean while troughing engulfs the central CONUS. We won`t see much change in the synoptic pattern through the short term period as the high remains relatively stationary, apart from strengthening farther north before a gradual shift inland on Thursday afternoon. As a result, look for continued dry weather and a return to warmer temperatures. One exception will be across portions of the San Juan Mountains where, thanks to a weak wave brushing the area on the backside of the larger trough to the east, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern though brief wetting rain is possible. Little to no convection is expected on Thursday. The other thing of note in the short term is the potential for near critical fire weather conditions today. Mixing under the ridge paired with a jet nosing into the northern zones will bring an uptick in winds this afternoon. Confidence is high regarding humidities dropping into the upper single digits to low teens this afternoon across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado but how strong the winds will be...that`s where uncertainty remains. Yesterday`s forecast was borderline for wind gusts of 25 mph or greater, and for three hours or more, and that is once again the case this morning. Overall, the probability of seeing wind gusts of 25 mph or greater together with those lower humidities is 30 to 40 percent for northwest Colorado while portions of northeast Utah are in the 50 to 60 percent range. There are some areas where the probability is 80 to 90 percent, but it is too localized or not of a long enough duration to justify upgrading the Fire Weather Watch. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 450 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A deep northwest flow pattern will remain in place over the Rockies into early next week as a ridge stays anchored over the West and deep trough over the eastern CONUS. This will keep SubTropical moisture shunted into the lower latitudes leaving a mainly dry forecast in place for our CWA with temperatures near normal through the end of the week gradually pushing above as we head into the weekend. The deep eastern trough will allow several fronts to drop through the High Plains leading to Gulf moisture being forced up the lee side hills. This could lead to a few storms along the divide late in the forecast but confidence is low this will occur until the Western High migrates far enough inland...which isn`t until the middle of next week. This is likely good news for those cutting hay after the prolonged wet spell...but possibly bad news for fire weather interests. Localized critical fire weather conditions are likely to occur each afternoon as humidity in the lower elevations drop into the single digits and lower teens and deep mixing promotes stronger wind gusts. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 517 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hour with afternoon breezes bringing gusts of 25 to 30 mph at area TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A system brushing the north today will bring a slight uptick in wind gusts this afternoon. Winds will largely remain less than 25 mph but there will be some localized periods of 30 mph across portions of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Given the decreased confidence on more widespread duration and coverage of winds, opted to cancel the Fire Weather Watch. Otherwise, mostly dry and warmer weather prevails through the end of the week and this weekend as high pressure remains overhead. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMS LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...TGJT