Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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981 FXUS63 KGID 032115 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 415 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly after 7PM this evening. Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main threats, although large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to clear out of the area by early to mid-afternoon on Independence Day. Dry conditions are expected for those with fireworks plans in the evening. - After a dry Thursday evening through Friday, periodic shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast early Saturday morning through early Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Much of the Hastings CWA is under sunny to mostly sunny skies at this hour, allowing us to warm things up. Current temperatures are in the 70s and 80s, with expected highs mainly in the 80s. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region tonight. Thunderstorms have already developed across western Nebraska and northeastern Nebraska. These storms are expected to congeal into a line, posing a strong wind threat as they move into the Hastings area later this evening. There still remains some uncertainty to the extent of how much of the Hastings coverage area will be impacted. Models have not done well at coming into agreement, and have flip-flopped on specific areas. Should this line hold together, we are looking at most of our south central Nebraska counties and possibly some of our north central counties being impacted. Strong winds and some large hail will be the main concerns as storms move through the area. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. Additionally, heavy rainfall over areas that have had a few inches of rain over the past week may result in some flooding issues in localized areas. The ground is fairly saturated in spots, so it will not take a lot of rain to cause some issues. The entire Hastings CWA has been outlooked in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for this afternoon/evening. The entire area is included in a Marginal or Slight Risk for severe weather for this afternoon and evening. Heading into Thursday, a broad upper ridge extending west to east from the PACNW to New England, will remain over Nebraska and Kansas. High temperatures are looking fairly nice, ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s in Nebraska and the low to mid-80s in Kansas. There will be some lingering chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms to start off the day. Storm chances will diminish from west to east during the late morning, with most areas being rain free by mid- afternoon. The rest of your Independence Day is expected to be rain free, with temperatures falling into the low 60s (north) to low 70s (south) around fireworks time. For those looking for some reprieve from the rain, enjoy the weather Friday. Dry and sunny conditions are expected through the day. High temperatures will be slightly warmer (upper 70s-low 80s Neb/low to mid-80s KS). Saturday, we transition to a period of northwest flow over the area, as the upper trough shifts slightly eastward. This will result in a shift in the weather pattern, allowing for disturbances to drop into the area from the PACNW. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will be possible from early Saturday morning through early Monday morning, with additional chances heading into mid-week. Temperatures will be primarily in the 70s and 80s each day for highs, and the 50s and 60s for lows. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Tried to narrow down a window for when their could be some VCTS at the TAF sites. HRRR tries to bring an MCS through and the NAN NEST and RAP have more scattered convection around the area. Not a lot of agreement with placement or timing for convection so will keep VCTS for now. Also, looking at another round of VCTS tomorrow morning, which will form along a cold front and is forecast to move through the TAF sites. Models don`t have a lot of agreement on TSRA coverage so will stick with a window of VCTS for now. Southerly winds today and tomorrow morning behind the cold front expect northwesterly winds and winds will get a little gusty in the afternoon. Along and behind the front expect MVFR/IFR ceilings and ceilings are expected to scatter out by early afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Beda