Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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913 FXUS63 KGID 040844 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 344 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One last push of showers/thunderstorms swings east through the area this morning...with dry conditions expected to return early this afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Gusty northwest winds are expected this afternoon, gusts between 20-30 MPH will be possible. Speeds are expected to diminish this evening, with overall pleasant conditions by fireworks time/10-ish PM. - Dry conditions are forecast for Friday, with precipitation chances returning for the weekend. Overall confidence in these chances are not high at this time, as differences between models with the timing/location continue. Potential for some strong-severe storms not out of the question on Saturday, the entire forecast area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Currently... The forecast area is currently sitting in a relative lull in activity, set up between 2 areas of showers/thunderstorms. The first cluster, currently over far SE NE into eastern KS, is an MCS which started off over western Nebraska and slid SE through the forecast area...producing in a handful of 45-65 MPH wind gusts. The second area is activity associated with an upper level trough axis, shown by upper air and satellite data to be sliding into the western Dakotas/NE Panhandle. At the surface, an overall weaker frontal boundary is sinking south through the area, ushering in a switch to more NNWrly winds...speeds are generally 10-15 MPH. Satellite imagery showing a good chunk of the area sitting with mostly clear skies between this activity, and temps as of 3AM have dropped into the upper 50s to low 60s. Today through Friday.... Looking at the rest of today, main forecast focus remains with lingering precipitation chances and the timing of their exit. Models remain in pretty good agreement showing the upper level system continuing to slide east across the Dakotas today, evolving into a closed low with time. The southward extending trough axis slides through the Central Plains, with the timing of the main precipitation chances today still coming during the first half of the day. Didn`t make any notable changes to the timing, with precipitation chances ending by early afternoon. With the passage of the trough axis, expecting a better push from an accompanying cool front, which will bring a reinforcing shot of NWrly winds. Gusts through the afternoon hours ranging from 20-30 MPH are not out of the question. Expecting diminishing cloud cover through the day, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s-low 80s...and with dewpoints falling into the low 50s to near 60 by early evening, conditions look to be pretty nice for fireworks activities. The forecast on through Friday into Friday evening remains dry, though it may be a close call for far NNE portions of the forecast area late in the day/early evening, as a few models try to sink some isolated activity south into the area. Not enough support in models/confidence to insert any PoPs, but something for upcoming crews to take a look at. Expecting mostly clear to partly cloudy skies for Friday...winds remain northwesterly, and there will be the potential for gusty conditions during the afternoon hours, though not thinking as gusty as today may be. Afternoon highs have a slight bump up, with more upper 70s to mid 80s. This weekend... Models remain in good agreement in the bigger picture looking aloft as we get into this weekend....by 12Z Saturday we are sitting under more northwesterly flow, with broad troughing affecting portions of the Plains into the Midwest/Gulf regions, and ridging extending northward along the West Coast. Main forecast question lies with any embedded shortwave disturbances sliding southeast into the region, bringing along precipitation chances. Unfortunately, because there are some notable differences with the timing/location, overall confidence is not high. Model solutions vary from just one main wave sliding through Sat night into Sunday...to a couple of waves bringing chances already Saturday morning and lingering them through the rest of the weekend. Hard to have a lot of confidence in potential for strong/severe storms looking at Saturday, but if enough moisture/instability return occurs like some models show...it`s not out of the question. Models are in better agreement showing around 35-40kts of deeper layer shear in the area. Plenty of details to iron out...but the entire forecast area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area. How Sunday pans out will be impacted by what happens Saturday. High temperatures through the weekend area in the mid 70s to mid 80s...but uncertainties in precip chances doesn`t boost confidence in highs. First half of the new work week... Outside of some spotty, low preciptiation chances (20 percent or less) Tuesday night into Wednesday, much of the first half of the work week is dry. Models are in decent agreement showing that amplified upper level ridging sitting over the West Coast through the weekend start to shift a little more east with time, potentially pushing the better precip chances east. Would have higher confidence in the dry forecast if the center of that upper high was closer to the forecast area...currently models have us under NNWrly flow, potentially affected by any waves riding around the edge of the ridging. Will have to see how that trends over the next few days. With the ridging sliding a bit east, expecting a bump up in highs, with mid 80s-low 90s forecast by Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: One area of showers/storms is currently pushing east of the terminal areas...can`t rule out some gusty SE winds for a brief period in its wake. Will be a bit of a lull, before another round of precipitation works in from the NW. Models suggest by the time it gets this far SE it may be scattered in nature, so wasn`t confident enough to go with more than a VC mention at this point. Once those chances pass by by mid-late morning, the remainder of the period is dry. Models continuing to show the potential for MVFR ceilings closer to 10Z and on into the mid- late morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds expected to turn NNW later tonight, then are more NW during the daytime hours Thursday...gusts near 20-25 MPH not of the question during the afternoon...becoming more westerly for the final few hours of this period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP