412
FXUS63 KGID 060913
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
413 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible across the area this afternoon into
  this evening. The main threats will be large hail and damaging
  winds.

- Showers and storms will also be possible Sunday and again on
  Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

- High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to mid 90s with
  low temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Today and tonight...

A broad, upper trough is over most of the country with an upper
ridge over the West Coast. Clear to mostly clear skies are across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas with
temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Winds are generally light and
variable. An upper disturbance will pass over the central Plains
today, and this will create enhanced lift over the area. Fairly high
CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates will be over the area
this afternoon which will contribute to possible severe
thunderstorms. Most of the forecast area is in a slight risk for
severe storms with the rest of the area in a marginal risk. The main
timing for severe storms appears to be this afternoon into this
evening. Some storms may develop (up to around a 40% chance) this
morning across mainly areas along and north of I-80, but these
storms are not expected to be severe. The main threats with the
strongest storms today will be large hail and damaging winds.
Additional showers and storms may develop (up to around a 35%
chance) tonight but are not expected to be severe. There is some
uncertainty in regards to high temperatures this afternoon due to
possible morning and early afternoon convection. Generally expect
high temperatures today to range from the upper 70s to mid 90s.
Temperatures across north central Kansas and portions of south
central Nebraska will have the potential to heat up due to a surface
trough in place. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the
50s and 60s.

Sunday through Monday night...

Another upper level disturbance will move over the area on Sunday
along with a cold front. This will lead to continued rain and storm
chances (up to around 65%) during the day on Sunday. Severe weather
is generally not expected on Sunday with much lower instability and
wind shear. Temperatures will be cooler with highs mostly in the
70s. Temperatures Sunday night will also be cooler with lows mainly
in the 50s with clearing skies and light northerly winds. The upper
trough will still be over the region on Monday but no precipitation
is expected. Light northerly winds will be present on Monday with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. Low temperatures Monday night will
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday through Friday night...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be
on the backside of the upper trough on Tuesday. An upper ridge will
be building over the western part of the country. Temperatures on
Tuesday are expected to warm up into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Rain
and storm chances (15% to 20%) return to parts of the area on
Wednesday as an upper disturbance moves overhead. Temperatures on
Wednesday will be similar or slightly cooler than the previous day.
Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar to the previous
night. Temperatures are expected to continue heating up Thursday and
Friday with highs reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s on Friday. This
will be a result of an upper ridge to the west having more impact
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds will generally be out of the southwest then switch to the
south by 15z. Winds will increase in strength by 21z. Showers
and storms will likely impact the area by 00z. There is some
uncertainty in regards to location and timing of storms. MVFR
ceilings may impact the terminals by 00z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt