631
FXUS65 KGGW 040302
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
902 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather conditions are expected through the end of
  the week with frequent chances for thunderstorms.

- Warmer and drier weather conditions develop across the region
  next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A broad upper trough remains over central Canada with upper
ridging off the west coast. The northwest flow into the northern
plains will bring a series of shortwaves through the region over
the next few days, driving the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. This activity will be focused in the afternoon
hours with peak daytime instability. For the Independence Day
holiday, the greatest influence from a passing shortwave trough
and low-level moisture will be near the North Dakota border where
convection is more favored. A lack of shear makes gusty winds with
these thunderstorms a minimal concern.

Ensembles show growing support for the upper level ridge
pushing eastward over the western CONUS Next week. This will lead
to dry and hot weather conditions by the middle of July.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

While confidence is low on precise timing and placement of any
thunderstorms, confidence is high on an overall active weather
pattern remaining in place this week with growing confidence on
hot and dry weather next week. The NBM was largely followed which
captured expected trends rather well.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0300Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: Thunderstorms will begin to taper off late this
evening but will return quickly tomorrow just before 18Z and last
through the afternoon. MVFR Visibility drops may occur with any
rain shower.

WIND: E to NE and light through tonight. Increasing to 10 to 15
kts through Thursday afternoon. Then becoming light Thursday
evening.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow